Will Asana guide FY2027 revenue growth at 10% or higher?

The 4-year deceleration trend (47% to 9%) is the strongest signal — guiding 10%+ would require breaking that trend. However, RPO +23% provides backlog support, and management raised FY2026 guidance throughout the year. Rogers' $16.8M PSUs create alignment with growth delivery. But Q4 guidance of 8-9% is the most recent trajectory signal, and guiding 10%+ from an 8-9% exit rate would be aggressive. The enterprise pivot evidence is E0-E1, insufficient to anchor acceleration expectations.

The critical tension is between RPO strength (+23%) and the actual growth trajectory (8-9% Q4). A new CEO typically guides conservatively in year one — Rogers would risk credibility by guiding above recent trajectory. The gap between RPO growth (23%) and revenue growth (9%) could indicate potential, but Myth Meter downgraded RPO to E1 — cannot confirm demand acceleration vs contract lengthening. Monday.com growing 27% vs Asana 11% shows competitive headwinds constraining acceleration.

FY2026 adds ~$66M incremental revenue (~$790M - $724M). For 10% growth, FY2027 needs ~$79M incremental — $13M more than FY2026 delivered. RPO at $500.9M and $100K+ customers (+15%) suggest enterprise pipeline is building, but SMB headwind ('evolving search landscape') removes a contributor. The Myth Meter downgraded RPO to E1. New CEO has incentive for achievable targets; guiding 10% and missing would be devastating for credibility. Most likely outcome: guide 9-10% with midpoint just below 10%.

Q4 FY2026 guided at 8-9% growth. FY2026 will land at ~9%. For a new CEO to guide 10%+ when exit velocity is 8-9%, he'd need to signal acceleration with limited evidence. Rogers is from ServiceNow/Rubrik — he knows conservative guidance protects credibility. RPO +23% is encouraging but appropriately downgraded to E1. Monday.com growing 2.5x Asana's rate shows competitive pressure. Most likely guidance: 8-10% range with midpoint around 9%, which resolves NO.

Steelmanning YES: RPO at +23% provides backlog; $100K+ customers growing 15%; margin expansion shows operational discipline; Rogers' PSUs incentivize growth; 'three waves' strategy positions for AI tailwinds. Counter: every one of these factors existed during FY2026 and growth still decelerated to 9%. Without concrete evidence of NRR improvement (unresolved committee debate), 10% guidance seems optimistic. CFO acknowledged SMB headwinds from evolving search landscape.

Guidance behavior is instructive: Asana raised FY2026 guidance from $780-790M to $789-791M during the year — management is comfortable raising as visibility improves. This means initial FY2027 guidance will likely be conservative with expectation of raising later. Resolution criteria is specifically about guidance at earnings release — that initial number. New CEOs almost always set achievable targets. The 8-9% Q4 exit rate is the natural anchor. Expect guidance of ~8-10% with midpoint at 9-9.5%.

Growth deceleration is clear: 47% to 9% over 4 years with no inflection point. Q4 exit rate is 8-9%. New CEO will guide conservatively in first full year. RPO +23% is positive but downgraded to E1 reliability by Myth Meter. 10% guidance would require breaking a 4-year deceleration trend with limited concrete evidence of inflection.

The gap between RPO growth (23%) and revenue growth (9%) is notable — either RPO overstates demand via contract lengthening, or revenue will accelerate. If the former, guidance will be 8-9%. If the latter, 10%+ is possible. Committee rated this an unresolved debate. Weighting toward the realized revenue trend rather than the leading indicator given E1 confidence. $100K+ customer growth at 15% provides some upside potential.

Myth Meter says expectations are MODEST (7-12% CAGR) — guiding 10% would be within that range, not a stretch. But near-term trajectory is 8-9% and deceleration trend is unbroken. New CEO conservatism is the tiebreaker — Rogers has no incentive to guide aggressively and every incentive to set a beatable bar. Most likely initial guidance lands at 8-10% with midpoint below 10%.