Will Asana's remaining performance obligations (RPO) YoY growth rate exceed its revenue growth rate in Q4 FY2026?

RPO growth has been stable at +23% YoY for at least two consecutive quarters (Q4 FY2025 and Q3 FY2026), while revenue growth has decelerated from 10.9% (FY2025) to ~9% (Q3 FY2026). The 14pp spread would need to collapse entirely in one quarter for RPO growth to fall below revenue growth. Even if RPO growth decelerates to 15-18% due to large tech renewal catch-up effects, and revenue growth accelerates to 10-11% on fiscal year-end seasonality, RPO would still exceed revenue growth. The only scenario where this fails is if RPO growth crashes by 15+ percentage points in a single quarter, which is unprecedented given enterprise deal momentum ($100K+ customers growing 15% YoY).

The structural argument is strong: RPO at +23% vs revenue at +9% means a 14pp gap must close in one quarter. However, Q4 as a fiscal year-end introduces lumpiness risk. If large enterprise renewals that were looming were already pulled forward into Q3 (CFO noted they were successfully renewed), Q4 could see a renewal gap. Additionally, the Myth Meter downgrade of RPO to E1 raises the possibility that contract lengthening (not new demand) inflated RPO, and if enterprises shift to shorter contracts, RPO could decelerate sharply. Still, for RPO growth to drop from 23% to below ~9%, even these risks would need to manifest simultaneously and severely. Assigning 82% reflecting the strong structural case tempered by Q4 fiscal year-end lumpiness and renewal timing uncertainty.

Base rate analysis: RPO growth has exceeded revenue growth in every reported quarter for multiple periods. The Q4 FY2025 data point ($430.8M RPO, +23% YoY, while revenue was +10%) and Q3 FY2026 ($500.9M, +23% YoY vs 9% revenue) show remarkable RPO growth stability. For Q4 FY2026, we need RPO to grow faster than the ~9-11% revenue range. The Q4 FY2025 RPO base is $430.8M, so to maintain 23% growth Q4 FY2026 RPO would need to reach ~$530M. Even if RPO only reaches ~$480M (implying growth deceleration to ~11-12%), that would still equal or barely exceed likely revenue growth. The PwC Critical Audit Matter on revenue recognition complexity suggests sophisticated multi-year contracts that would sustain RPO. Deferred revenue at $300.8M growing 13.4% also confirms forward visibility. Probability: 85%.

This is straightforward. RPO growth has been at 23% for two straight quarters. Revenue growth is at 9%. The gap is 14 percentage points. For this market to resolve NO, RPO growth would need to crash by more than 14pp in a single quarter from 23% to below 9%. That would require either a massive enterprise customer non-renewal or a fundamental accounting change. The enterprise pipeline ($100K+ customers up 15%) and completed large tech renewals make a crash unlikely. Even conservatively assuming RPO growth decelerates by 5-8pp to 15-18%, it still comfortably exceeds 9-11% revenue growth. This is one of the higher-confidence binary markets.

The structural case for YES is strong, but I want to stress-test it. The Myth Meter downgrade is meaningful. If RPO inflation reflects contract lengthening for volume discounts rather than net-new demand, the RPO figure could be more volatile than its recent stability suggests. Fiscal Q4 year-end dynamics cut both ways: large deals could be signed (boosting RPO) or enterprises could defer commitments pending FY2027 budget cycles. The looming large tech renewals being completed in Q3 means those will not repeat in Q4. However, current RPO (77-81% of total) converting to revenue within 12 months suggests genuine forward visibility, not just paper commitments. Even accounting for these risks, RPO growth falling from 23% to below ~9-11% in one quarter is a tail scenario, not a base case. Setting at 79% because I weight the Myth Meter E1 assessment and Q4 renewal gap risk more heavily.

The math is simple: RPO needs to grow faster than revenue on a YoY basis. RPO has been at 23% growth for two quarters, revenue at ~9%. The spread is too wide for a single-quarter reversal under normal business conditions. Revenue growth could accelerate modestly in Q4 (fiscal year-end push, perhaps to 10-11%) while RPO could decelerate (perhaps to 15-20% if Q3 captured some Q4 deals early). Even in a bearish RPO scenario of 15% growth, it still exceeds an optimistic revenue scenario of 11%. The question resolution is near-certain under base-case conditions, with risk coming only from extreme tail scenarios like a major enterprise customer non-renewal or contract restructuring.

RPO at 23% growth vs revenue at 9% growth creates a 14pp spread. Enterprise customers growing 15%. No plausible mechanism to close this gap in one quarter. Strong YES.

Strong structural case for RPO exceeding revenue growth. The 14pp gap is very wide. Main risks: Q4 year-end lumpiness, large tech renewals already completed in Q3 creating a gap. But even accounting for deceleration, RPO would need to fall by more than half to approach revenue growth levels. Setting 81%.

Multiple quarters of RPO growth at 23% vs revenue growth at 9-10%. Current RPO $500.9M growing from $430.8M base. Even if Q4 RPO only reaches $490M (deceleration to ~14% growth), still exceeds likely revenue growth of ~9-11%. High probability YES.