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ATAIActive

Will a competing psychedelic Phase 2b or Phase 3 TRD/MDD program (Cybin CYB003, MindMed MM120, or COMPASS COMP360) report a statistically significant primary endpoint hit by 2026-12-31?

Resolves December 31, 2026(178d)

IG: 0.40

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement89%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 22, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Competitor psychedelic Phase 3 efficacy data (Cybin CYB003, MindMed MM120, or COMPASS COMP360) in 2026 is the TAM compression test. Positive data compresses ATAI's addressable market share and may invalidate Gravy Gauge's Spravato-template peak revenue anchor. Negative competitor data preserves ATAI's first-mover optionality within the psychedelic class. This market is a cross-program readthrough with material impact on peak-revenue assumptions.

REVENUE_DURABILITYEXPECTATIONS_PRICEDNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 37% – 45%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Three-program union: (1) COMPASS COMP360 Part A readout guided mid-2026; P(on-time readout in 2026) ~55-65%, P(primary endpoint hit given readout) ~55%. Combined P(COMP360 qualifying event in 2026) ~30-35%. (2) Cybin CYB003 Phase 3 first readout not expected until 2027; possible Phase 2b readout in indications beyond MDD — probability low, ~8-10%. (3) MindMed MM120 primary indication is GAD not MDD/TRD; if the question is strictly interpreted, MM120 Voyage GAD readout would not count; however, new Phase 2b in MDD is plausible with ~8-12% probability. Union (with some correlation) approximately 0.42.

COMPASS COMP360 Part A mid-2026 guidanceCybin CYB003 2027 readout timelineMindMed MM120 indication-filter ambiguityThree-program union probability

opusRun 2

38%

Lean more conservative on COMPASS timing. COMP360 Part A has slipped timelines before; mid-2026 guidance is aspirational. P(readout on time in 2026) closer to 45-55%. P(stat sig hit) approximately 50% given mixed Phase 2b durability data. Combined COMP360 contribution ~25%. Add 7-10% for Cybin Phase 2b readouts and 3-5% for MM120 MDD Phase 2b. Net 0.38.

COMP360 timeline slippage historyMixed Phase 2b durability precedentCybin and MM120 low contributionConservative timeline anchoring

opusRun 3

45%

Slight upward lean. Psychiatric Phase 2b/3 hit rate with positive precedent is 55-70%. COMPASS is the most material contributor and the program is mature enough that some 2026 readout is high-probability (70%+). If readout happens, stat sig is 55%. Combined 0.40 just from COMP360. Add 5-8% from each of the other two programs' aggregate optionality. Net 0.45.

Base rate 55-70% primary endpoint hit for positive-precedent programsCOMP360 maturity argues for 2026 readoutPsychedelic-specific functional unblinding concernsUpside lean on class-wide breakthrough momentum

sonnetRun 1

40%

COMP360 Part A is the anchor. P(readout by 2026-12-31) approximately 55%, P(positive) approximately 55% = ~30% contribution. Cybin and MM120 contribute 10-12% combined. Correlation-adjusted union approximately 0.40. Strict 'new readout post-2026-04-22' criterion excludes prior data.

COMP360 anchor contributionTwo smaller program contributionsCorrelation-adjusted unionPrior-data exclusion criterion

sonnetRun 2

37%

Conservative. Psychedelic programs have historically missed Phase 2b durability despite primary endpoint hits — the question's strict primary endpoint criterion is met by primary success alone, but the inclusion of 'statistically significant' is a meaningful filter. 0.37.

Psychedelic primary endpoint historyStrict p<0.05 filterCOMP360 mixed Phase 2b durability

sonnetRun 3

43%

Union across three programs — COMPASS as the dominant contributor (~30%), with Cybin (~7%) and MindMed (~8%) adding incremental paths. Statistical significance rates are higher than common perception for Breakthrough-designated programs with positive precedent. 0.43.

Dominant COMPASS contributorIncremental Cybin and MindMed pathsBreakthrough program stat sig ratesUnion-adjusted probability

haikuRun 1

40%

Three programs; at least one readout in 2026 has probability ~60-70%; statistically significant ~55%; union approximately 0.40.

Three-program unionReadout probabilityStat sig rate

haikuRun 2

38%

COMPASS dominant at ~30%, other two add ~10%. 0.38.

COMPASS dominanceOther program contributionsCombined estimate

haikuRun 3

42%

Mid-range. COMPASS timing + Breakthrough-designated psychiatric Phase 3 success rate + multi-program union. 0.42.

COMPASS timingPsychiatric Phase 3 success rateUnion across programs

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 any of Cybin Inc. (CYB003), MindMed (MM120), or COMPASS Pathways (COMP360) publicly discloses topline results for any Phase 2b or Phase 3 TRD or MDD trial showing a STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT (p<0.05) change vs placebo/control on the pre-specified primary efficacy endpoint. Resolves NO if none of the three companies disclose a positive Phase 2b/3 TRD/MDD primary-endpoint hit by 2026-12-31. Phase 2a open-label results do NOT count. Secondary endpoint wins do NOT count if primary failed. If a company has already reported positive data before 2026-04-22, that reading does not trigger YES — only new readouts within the 2026-04-22 to 2026-12-31 window count.

Resolution Source

Cybin, MindMed, COMPASS press releases, SEC 6-K/8-K filings, clinicaltrials.gov results, major biotech press (Endpoints, BioPharma Dive, STAT)

Source Trigger

Competitor psychedelic Phase 3 readouts (Cybin, MindMed, COMPASS) — Positive competitor data compresses TAM

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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