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ATIActive

Will ATI's defense revenue growth decelerate to single digits in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(209d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 21, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Defense is ATI's diversification pillar (~14% of revenue). Four consecutive years of double-digit growth has contributed meaningfully to the transformation narrative. Deceleration to single digits would reduce overall revenue growth and test whether ATI's A&D concentration risk extends beyond commercial aerospace into defense as well.

REGULATORY_EXPOSUREREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 32% – 42%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

ATI defense double digits for 4 years with missiles up 127%. Hard to sustain but geopolitical environment supportive. Sole-source positions. Base case is low-double-digits, not single digits.

4 years hard to sustainGeopolitical supportSole-source positions

opusRun 2

40%

Missile restocking is one-time surge that normalizes. DOGE reviews add uncertainty. High base creates deceleration math.

Missile restocking one-timeDOGE uncertaintyHigh base math

opusRun 3

32%

Defense appropriations elevated with bipartisan support. Strategic national security materials politically protected. Single-digit requires active budget cuts.

Bipartisan supportStrategic materialsBudget cuts required

sonnetRun 1

38%

127% missile growth clearly unsustainable. Even if missiles normalize to 20-30%, other defense may keep blended growth low double digits.

Missile normalization certainOther defense offsetsBlended may stay double digit

sonnetRun 2

42%

DOGE risk weighted more. Aggressive spending reviews. Continuing resolution freezes spending. If CR persists, growth mechanically slows.

DOGE reviewsCR riskProcurement reform delays

sonnetRun 3

35%

Global defense momentum strong. NATO increasing. Sole-source means captive revenue. Single-digit requires spending flatten AND share loss.

Global momentumNATO increaseCaptive revenue

haikuRun 1

35%

4 years double-digit may normalize. Missile restocking one-time. But budgets elevated and sole-source.

Normalization likelyBudget elevatedCuts needed

haikuRun 2

40%

High base makes double-digit harder. DOGE adds uncertainty. Missile normalizes.

High baseDOGEMissile normalization

haikuRun 3

33%

Bipartisan support, sole-source, strategic materials provide floor. Active cuts needed for single digit.

BipartisanSole-sourceStrategic materials

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ATI's FY2026 defense revenue (as disclosed in earnings or 10-K) grows less than 10% YoY compared to FY2025 defense revenue.

Resolution Source

ATI FY2026 10-K filing or Q4 2026 earnings disclosure with defense segment data

Source Trigger

Defense spending trajectory â€” 4th consecutive year of double-digit growth in defense. Deceleration to single digits would affect ~14% of revenue.

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREMEDIUM

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