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Will BAC full-year 2026 net interest income grow 7% or more YoY (upper end of 5-7% guide)?

Resolves February 15, 2027(307d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement88%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The upper end of the 2026 NII guide is 7% growth. Reaching or beating that level would validate the asymmetric risk thesis has tilted upside. Coming in below 5% would indicate either the deposit cycle is more adverse than modeled or the repricing yields are worse than projected. This tests the mechanical-tailwind narrative across a full year.

REVENUE_DURABILITYFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 42%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Upper end of a guide range typically has a ~35-45% probability when the curve is at expectation. BAC's historical pattern of landing near the top adds a slight boost. But asymmetric rate sensitivity punishes dovish surprises. Net: probability ~40%.

Top of guide historically ~40% probableRate asymmetry downside biasBAC upper-end pattern

opusRun 2

38%

Getting to 7% YoY requires each quarter to deliver at upper end. Even one quarter of underperformance pushes full year to midrange. The deposit cycle cushion is spent, so any incremental pressure flows directly to NIM.

All-quarters-at-upper-end requirementDeposit cushion spentSingle-quarter miss tips range

opusRun 3

40%

Repricing tailwind math supports 6-7% growth if loan growth stays at 7-8% pace. But any deceleration of loan growth to 5% level cuts NII growth to ~5.5%. Path to 7%+ requires both repricing AND loan growth AND deposit stickiness.

Repricing math supports rangeLoan growth sensitivityThree-factor conjunction

sonnetRun 1

40%

The 5-7% range midpoint is 6%. Landing at or above 7% requires overperformance on multiple dimensions. Base rate ~40%.

Midpoint 6%Multi-factor overperformance40% base rate

sonnetRun 2

42%

BAC's Q4 2025 exit rate of $15.9B already implies full-year 2026 at ~6.5% if held constant. To reach 7%+ needs +2% sequential growth every quarter. Challenging but plausible.

Q4 exit rate mathSequential growth requiredPlausible but demanding

sonnetRun 3

38%

Rate asymmetry is the binding constraint. Any dovish surprise beyond 2 cuts immediately cuts NII growth by ~200bps over 12 months. Curve risk skews outcomes lower.

Rate asymmetry bindingDovish surprise riskCurve risk skew

haikuRun 1

40%

Upper end of guide range. Base rate ~40%.

Upper endBase rate

haikuRun 2

38%

Asymmetric risk, demanding threshold.

Asymmetric risk

haikuRun 3

42%

Repricing mechanical, loan growth supports. Possible but demanding.

Repricing math

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if BAC's full-year 2026 NII (FTE basis as reported in Q4 2026 earnings release and 10-K) exceeds FY2025 NII by 7.0% or more. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

BAC FY2026 earnings release and 10-K

Source Trigger

Full year 2026 NII vs 5-7% guide

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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