BACActive

Will BAC Global Markets sales & trading revenue (ex-DVA) grow YoY in EVERY quarter of 2026 (extending the streak to 19 consecutive quarters)?

Resolves February 15, 2027(307d)

IG: 0.56

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement86%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Global Markets has delivered 15 consecutive quarters of YoY S&T growth. Mean reversion becomes increasingly probable. This market tests whether the most extraordinary component of the BAC thesis continues. A break would re-rate the competitive-position ceiling and force a review of the DURABLE revenue call.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 40%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

40%

Individual quarter extension probability ~80-85% given share-taking franchise. Joint probability of 4 consecutive extensions: 0.82^4 ≈ 0.45. Q4 2026 comp is hardest. Slight downward adjustment to 0.40.

Joint probability compounds downQ4 2026 tough compShare-taking franchise intact

opusRun 2

35%

Asian equities driving Q4 2025 is the most volatile component. Regional risk-off in any quarter of 2026 could break the streak. The most extended components (equities) face the toughest comps.

Asian equities volatilityRegional risk-off riskToughest comps on strongest comps

opusRun 3

38%

15-quarter streak argues for hazard rate compounding — each quarter has a slightly higher break probability than the last. But BAC is genuinely investing (technology, people, balance sheet) to sustain the franchise. Probability 35-40%.

Hazard rate compoundingGenuine investment in franchiseShare taking continuing

sonnetRun 1

40%

Four quarters of streak extension. Each quarter ~80-85% individual. Joint ~40%. Base case.

Joint probabilityIndividual 80-85%

sonnetRun 2

36%

Global Markets Q4 2025 was a genuine record on a seasonally strong Q4 comp. Q4 2026 comparable will be the hardest extension test. Full year yes is lower than individual quarter rate suggests.

Q4 record baseHardest extension test late year

sonnetRun 3

40%

BAC's 15-quarter streak reflects genuine structural advantages (technology, scale). The base case is continued growth but at decelerating rates. Full year clean sweep probability ~40%.

Structural advantagesDecelerating growth~40% base case

haikuRun 1

38%

Joint probability compounds. ~40%.

Joint probability

haikuRun 2

36%

Toughest Q4 comp.

Q4 comp

haikuRun 3

40%

Share taking continues but hazard rate rising.

Share takingHazard rate

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES only if BAC reports positive YoY growth in Global Markets sales and trading revenue (excluding DVA) for each of Q1, Q2, Q3, AND Q4 of 2026 (comparing each quarter to the corresponding 2025 quarter). Resolves NO if ANY of the four 2026 quarters shows flat or negative YoY S&T growth.

Resolution Source

BAC quarterly earnings releases and 10-Qs/10-K

Source Trigger

Global Markets S&T YoY growth (streak extension)

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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