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BACActive

Will BAC report Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.96 or higher?

Resolves May 15, 2026

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement90%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Consensus EPS for Q1 2026 is roughly $0.95. The combination of NII growth, operating leverage, and seasonal markets strength should support an in-line or modest beat. A miss would break the consistent-execution narrative that underpins the DURABLE signal. A strong beat validates the operating leverage machine and supports a higher-confidence 2026 trajectory.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 60% – 65%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

65%

$0.96 is roughly in line with consensus and a touch above. Seasonal S&T strength in Q1 + NII tailwind + share count reduction supports EPS near $0.96-1.00. BAC has beat consensus in 5 of last 6 quarters.

Seasonal S&T strengthBuyback EPS liftConsistent beat pattern

opusRun 2

60%

Threshold modest but Q1 payroll tax and absence of Q4 FDIC credit create ~$0.03-0.05 of headwind vs a clean Q4 run rate. NII lift offsets most of it. Net: probability 55-65%.

Payroll tax headwindFDIC credit absenceNII tailwind offset

opusRun 3

62%

Committee DURABLE signal + buyback pace acceleration supports EPS at or above $0.96. Seasonal strength in markets is the swing factor — if global markets repeats Q4 strength, probability rises to 70%.

DURABLE signalBuyback accelerationMarkets seasonality swing

sonnetRun 1

63%

$0.96 is barely above consensus. BAC beat pattern + mechanical NII lift supports a small beat. Moderate confidence.

Small beat requiredMechanical NII lift

sonnetRun 2

60%

Q1 2026 EPS math: NII +7% YoY contributes ~$0.06 YoY, markets likely flat-to-up (seasonal), wealth up, expenses +4% drag $0.03. Net ~$0.97.

NII YoY mathMarkets seasonalExpenses drag

sonnetRun 3

65%

The 200bp full-year operating leverage guide frontloads naturally in Q1 with seasonal markets strength. EPS tracking slightly above $0.96 is likely.

Operating leverage frontloadQ1 markets strength

haikuRun 1

60%

Modest beat threshold. BAC pattern supports.

Modest thresholdPattern

haikuRun 2

62%

Buyback pace + NII lift + seasonal markets = EPS $0.96+.

BuybackNIIMarkets

haikuRun 3

63%

Consistent execution pattern. Modest beat likely.

Execution pattern

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if BAC Q1 2026 diluted earnings per common share is $0.96 or higher in the earnings release. Resolves NO if below $0.96.

Resolution Source

BAC Q1 2026 earnings press release

Source Trigger

Q1 2026 EPS vs consensus $0.95-0.96

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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