Will BAC report Q1 2026 net interest income (FTE basis) of $15.7B or higher?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Q1 2026 NII is the single most important datapoint for validating the full-year 5-7% NII guide and the mechanical repricing story. Management implicitly guided to ~$15.6-15.7B (Q4 $15.9B base minus $100M MMSA geography minus $150M for two fewer days plus December cut). A print at or above $15.7B validates the tailwind narrative. A print below $15.4B forces re-examination of deposit remix and repricing assumptions.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
The $15.7B threshold sits exactly at the top of management's implied range. BAC has a pattern of landing at the top of guide ranges (Q4 hit the top of the $15.5-15.7B exit-rate guide from mid-year). The mechanical repricing tailwind accounts for $200-300M/quarter of lift and Q1 should capture most of it. Against this, the $250M of drags (MMSA + days + cut) is precisely calibrated, leaving little room for beats.
The threshold is set AT management's set-point, not comfortably above it. Small misses below the set-point happen. The deposit beta cushion is mostly spent (consumer deposit rate already 55bp), so any adverse remix costs more than in prior quarters. Q1 is also the first full quarter reflecting the December 2025 rate cut on variable-rate assets.
The committee's DURABLE revenue rating is anchored on this specific expectation. Loan growth at 8% YoY (Q4) provides incremental NII above what the repricing alone delivers. Deposit growth 3% YoY also contributes. The asymmetry is modest: meeting $15.7B is in the 55-65% range based on base rates, and small upside from loan growth tips it slightly above 50%.
Management said the 'higher end of $15.5-15.7B' was achieved in Q4. Q1 starts from $15.9B and subtracts ~$250M of known drags (MMSA geography, days, Dec cut). That math lands at $15.65B — essentially right at the threshold. The repricing tailwind and loan growth add $50-150M of upside. The net: probability leans slightly above 50%.
The question is whether BAC lands above or below its own set-point by a small amount. Historical base rate is ~60% for meeting set-point. The $15.7B threshold is effectively the top of the range, so it's closer to 50-55% than 60%+. The deposit cycle cushion is nearly exhausted.
Q3 NII was $15.4B; Q4 was $15.9B — a $500M sequential improvement. The Q4-to-Q1 math suggests $15.65-15.7B. Marginal factors include whether Global Markets NII geography shift is fully $100M (could be more or less), whether loan growth exceeds 8% YoY pace, and the FedFunds-minus-SOFR dynamic. Slight tilt above 50%.
Threshold at top of management range. Repricing mechanical but drags also well-modeled. Slight upside bias from BAC's history of landing at top of ranges.
Loan growth 8% YoY + deposit growth 3% YoY + asset repricing supports near or above $15.7B. Moderate confidence.
Committee signals DURABLE revenue. Q4 beat its own guide. Repeat pattern expected.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if BAC's Q1 2026 earnings release reports NII on a fully taxable equivalent (FTE) basis of $15.7B or above. Resolves NO if the FTE NII figure is below $15.7B.
Resolution Source
BAC Q1 2026 earnings press release and supplemental package
Source Trigger
Q1 2026 NII print vs $15.6-15.7B management set-point
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