Will any BAC C-suite executive file a Form 4 reporting discretionary open-market sales in Q2 2026 NOT tied to a vest or 10b5-1 plan?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The March 2026 insider selling cluster had a clean vest-linked explanation. A repeat in Q2 without a vesting trigger would shift the Insider Investigator signal from MIXED to MISALIGNED. This is the bright-line test for governance alignment. The lens explicitly flagged this as the critical follow-up.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
The March cluster has a clean vest explanation. Q2 has no structural trigger. Historically Q2 sees 0-1 discretionary C-suite sales at BAC. The 10b5-1 exclusion eliminates most scheduled activity. Probability in the 15-25% range.
If Q1 earnings are strong and stock rallies above $52, some insiders may take additional opportunistic sales. The March cluster at $50 range suggests an insider-comfortable level. Slightly higher than historical base.
Discretionary C-suite sales outside of vests are notable events at BAC and rare historically. The Insider Investigator lens flagged this specifically as a monitoring event. Base probability modestly above historical rate given recent pattern.
Base rate for discretionary Q2 C-suite sales at BAC is ~1-2 per quarter across 10 NEOs. The 10b5-1 exclusion removes most, leaving probability ~20-25%.
CEO non-participation in March is the key anchor. Operating management is not signaling conviction-driven selling. Q2 likely quiet.
The March cluster pattern could extend to any executive that held back in March. Co-Presidents and senior VPs might trickle out discretionary sales. Probability slightly above base.
Low base rate. No trigger.
Slight elevation due to recent cluster pattern.
Historical rarity + recent cluster = modest upward adjustment.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any named executive officer of BAC (as listed in the DEF 14A proxy statement) files a Form 4 showing an open-market sale or dispositive transaction during April 1 - June 30, 2026 that is NOT tied to a vest/grant settlement AND is NOT executed under a pre-existing 10b5-1 plan. The determination excludes: tax withholding dispositions, option exercises, sale-to-issuer transactions, and transactions footnoted as 10b5-1 plan executions. Resolves NO if no qualifying discretionary open-market sale occurs.
Resolution Source
SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for BAC
Source Trigger
C-suite Form 4 activity in Q2 2026 without vest trigger
Full multi-lens equity analysis