Will FRED's commercial loan delinquency rate (DRBLACBS) exceed 1.6% by Q3 2026?
Why This Question Matters
DRBLACBS exceeding 1.6% by Q3 2026 is the single most diagnostic forward indicator across the lens stack. The current 1.34% level is benign but the directional signal (9pp YoY SLOOS standards loosening into 17% relative delinquency rise) matches 8-9 of 10 signals to the 2018 Q4 analog. A YES resolution would confirm late-cycle credit signature and raise transition probability from 35-45% toward 60%+. A NO resolution would suggest the 2018 analog is mistimed by more than 6 months.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any quarterly Federal Reserve H.8 release reporting Q3 2026 data (released by November 30, 2026) shows the Delinquency Rate on Business Loans at All Commercial Banks (DRBLACBS) at or above 1.60%. Resolves NO if all Q1 2026, Q2 2026, and Q3 2026 prints remain below 1.60%. Source: FRED series DRBLACBS, Federal Reserve Board H.8 release.
Resolution Source
FRED series DRBLACBS (Delinquency Rate on Business Loans, All Commercial Banks), Federal Reserve H.8 quarterly release
Source Trigger
DRBLACBS commercial loan delinquency >1.6% by Q3 2026 (currently 1.34%) — late-cycle credit signature confirmed; transition probability rises to 60%+.
Full multi-lens equity analysis