BRBRActive

Will BellRing's FY2026 full-year adjusted gross margin exceed 30%?

Resolves December 15, 2026(273d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

Range: 50% – 58%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

Q1 at 29.9%. Full year needs to average above 30%. H2 expected to improve as Dymatize mix shrinks and cost savings accelerate. 30% is a modest threshold given H2 improvement expected.

Q1 at 29.9% is close to thresholdH2 improvement expectedDymatize mix shift favorable

opusRun 2

50%

Whey protein costs remain elevated through FY2026. Tariffs add 80bps headwind. If Q2 gross margin is similar to Q1 (~29-30%), the full year may hover right around 30%. Coin-flip probability.

Whey costs elevated full yearTariff impact 80bpsMay hover right at threshold

opusRun 3

52%

The 18% EBITDA margin guide implies roughly 32-33% gross margins if SGA is ~14-15% of sales. But with tariffs and promotional headwinds, achieving 32%+ gross margin in H2 is aggressive. Full-year >30% is plausible but tight.

Implied from EBITDA guideH2 needs 32%+ to pull average above 30%Tight math

sonnetRun 1

58%

Management's EBITDA guide of 18% margin with ~4% A&P and ~10% G&A implies ~32% gross margin on average. If H2 reaches 32%+, full year exceeds 30%. This is consistent with the expected H2 improvement.

EBITDA guide implies ~32% gross margin averageH2 improvement baked inConsistent with management plan

sonnetRun 2

53%

Q1 was 29.9%. If Q2 is similar or slightly worse (13% EBITDA margin implies maybe 28-29% gross), the H1 average is ~29%. H2 would need ~31%+ to pull full year above 30%. Achievable but requires the planned cost savings to materialize.

H1 likely averages ~29%H2 needs 31%+ for full year above 30%Requires cost savings execution

sonnetRun 3

55%

Central case: full-year gross margin lands right around 30%, making this a close call. The H2 improvement is the key assumption. If it materializes, above 30%. If not, below.

Close to threshold either wayH2 improvement is key assumptionBinary outcome near 50-50

sonnetRun 4

57%

Slightly above 50-50. Management's guidance framework assumes margin improvement in H2, and they have visibility into cost structure. CPG companies rarely miss the directional margin trajectory they guide to.

Management guides H2 improvementCPG margin guidance usually directionally correctSlight positive lean

sonnetRun 5

52%

Near coin-flip. The margin trajectory depends on whey protein prices, tariff impacts, and competitive promotional dynamics — all of which have genuine uncertainty.

Multiple uncertain variablesNear coin-flip probabilityGenuine uncertainty on inputs

sonnetRun 6

55%

Final estimate. The implied math from management guidance supports slightly above 30%. Lean YES but with low confidence.

Implied math supports slightly aboveLow confidence in precise outcome

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if full-year FY2026 adjusted gross margin exceeds 30.0%. Resolves NO if 30.0% or below.

Resolution Source

BellRing Brands FY2026 annual earnings

Source Trigger

Adj. gross margin trajectory

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View BRBR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis