BRBRActive

Will BellRing maintain net leverage below 3.0x through FY2026?

Resolves December 15, 2026(273d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

72%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement82%

Predictions6 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

Range: 68% – 75%Aggregate: 72%

Individual Predictions(6 runs)

opusRun 1

75%

Net leverage at 2.5x. To reach 3.0x would require significant EBITDA miss and/or new debt. If EBITDA hits $425M+ and company slows buybacks, leverage should decline. OCF of $260M+ provides deleveraging capacity.

0.5x cushion from 3.0xOCF provides deleveragingBuyback moderation expected

opusRun 2

68%

The risk scenario: if management continues aggressive buybacks at depressed prices (which would be cheaper now but debt-additive) while EBITDA comes in below guidance. Q1 FY2026 already saw $97M in buybacks.

Continued buybacks add leverage$97M Q1 buybacksEBITDA below guidance risk

opusRun 3

72%

Management stated capital allocation priorities include 'balancing debt paydowns and opportunistic buybacks.' The 2.5x level provides meaningful cushion. Even a 10% EBITDA miss with moderate buybacks would keep leverage below 3.0x.

Management includes debt paydown2.5x has cushion10% miss still below 3.0x

sonnetRun 1

75%

For leverage to reach 3.0x from 2.5x, net debt would need to increase ~$200M with EBITDA at $425M, or EBITDA would need to drop to ~$360M at current debt. Both are unlikely scenarios.

Math requires extreme scenariosEither $200M debt increase or $60M EBITDA missBoth unlikely

sonnetRun 2

70%

Moderate confidence in staying below 3.0x. The primary risk is if the company continues its buyback program at a rate that adds to debt while EBITDA declines. Management may see depressed stock as a buying opportunity.

Buyback temptation at low pricesEBITDA decliningManagement discipline uncertain

sonnetRun 3

72%

Central estimate. The 0.5x cushion and operating cash flow generation strongly favor staying below 3.0x. Only a combination of aggressive buybacks AND EBITDA miss would breach the threshold.

0.5x cushionStrong OCFRequires dual headwinds to breach

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if net debt/EBITDA remains below 3.0x at each quarter-end through FY2026. Resolves NO if exceeds 3.0x.

Resolution Source

BellRing quarterly earnings

Source Trigger

Net leverage ratio exceeding 3.0x

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYCRITICAL

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