Will Premier Protein maintain above 20% RTD market share through FY2026?

Share declined 5pp in 9 months but deceleration likely. Premier's repeat rates and category captain status provide floor. Insurgent brand shakeout expected. 20% is 2pp below current.

The rate of decline matters more than the level. 5pp in 9 months is rapid. If insurgent promotional spending continues and Fairlife gains traction, another 2pp loss is plausible.

Category captain status and #1 velocity help maintain distribution. Innovation pipeline addresses incremental occasions. The bigger risk is further temporary share loss from insurgent promotions rather than permanent erosion below 20%.

20% is a meaningful step down from 22% current. Would require another 10% of remaining share loss in the same competitive environment. Possible but not probable given innovation pipeline and retailer relationships.

The expanded club shelf set is the key risk factor. If it becomes permanent and insurgent brands retain that space, club share erosion could be material. But management expects some consolidation behind best performers.

Moderate confidence in maintaining above 20%. The brand is strong, category is growing, and 2pp of cushion exists. But the competitive dynamics are genuinely uncertain.

More cautious view. The club competitive dynamics may be more structural than management implies. If insurgent brands achieve permanent footholds, the share floor is lower than 20%.

On balance, the category leader with best repeat rates, most distribution, and innovation pipeline should hold above 20%. This is the central case.

Final weighting slightly below median. The speed of the prior decline introduces uncertainty about the floor level.