Will Brown & Brown disclose cumulative Howden-related customer revenue losses of $50M or more by Q4 2026 earnings?

Two paths to YES: (1) cumulative attrition exceeds $50M with continued disclosure, OR (2) discovery process forces disclosure of larger pipeline impact. Path (1) requires roughly $27M+ of additional attrition over the next ~9 months — possible but mgmt has injunction working. Path (2) is contingent on litigation phase. The criteria's default-NO clause if mgmt ceases disclosing materially favors NO outcome. Mgmt has clear incentive to cap visible disclosure and seek non-disclosure settlement. Probability ~25%.

The $23M figure was likely conservative at Q4 disclosure (mgmt incentive to under-disclose). Discovery process throughout 2026 typically surfaces additional impact — could push reported figure above $50M before mgmt closes off disclosure. Howden is a sophisticated competitor that will exploit gaps in injunction enforcement. Decentralized teammate model creates ongoing structural exposure. Probability slightly higher than 25%.

Settlement timing is the key variable. UK-style commercial litigation typically reaches settlement within 12-18 months of injunction. A settlement reached in 2026 would likely have non-disclosure provisions, capping the visible figure. Without settlement, the slow drip of additional confirmed losses might push toward $50M but staying just below. The criteria's specific 'cumulative...losses' language requires aggregation and disclosure — defaults to NO without active disclosure cadence.

Multiple mechanisms could push above $50M: (1) renewal cycle in 2026 may produce additional customer losses, (2) discovery surfaces broader pipeline impact, (3) new teammates leaving with customer follow-on. Counterforces: injunction working; mgmt incentive to under-disclose; likely settlement before threshold. ~28% probability.

Default-NO criteria favor lower probability. Mgmt has strong incentive to: (a) under-disclose, (b) settle with non-disclosure, (c) reframe as 'matter contained.' Injunction enforcement is working. Customer renewal cycles complete before $50M threshold reached. Probability ~22%.

Higher-end estimate. The $23M was confirmed as of Q4 — that's only the visible tip. Sophisticated competitors typically exceed initial damage assessments by 1.5-2x in commercial litigation. If actual cumulative impact is $35M+ today and the renewal cycle produces another $15M+ in 2026, the threshold is reached. Mgmt may be forced to disclose if the figure becomes material to organic growth calculation.

Probability ~25%. Multiple paths to YES (renewal cycle, discovery, additional teammate departures) but mgmt has strong incentive to under-disclose and settle before threshold. Default-NO clause works against YES.

Injunction is working. Settlement likely with non-disclosure terms. Mgmt has clear incentive to cap visible disclosure. Probability ~22%.

Slightly higher estimate. The decentralized teammate model creates structural exposure that doesn't fully resolve with injunction — Howden can continue to recruit selectively. Renewal cycle in 2026 may produce another $15-20M. Probability ~28%.