Will BVN publish the Trapiche feasibility study by end of 2026?

The feasibility study was expected mid-2026 per Q2 2025 guidance, but the EIS (Environmental Impact Study) was pending approval and may be a prerequisite. BVN's track record on project timelines is poor — San Gabriel experienced repeated delays. The exploration budget increase to $90-100M signals commitment, but management attention is likely consumed by San Gabriel ramp-up problems. The question gives until end of 2026 (6 months beyond the mid-2026 target), providing some buffer. However, feasibility studies for copper porphyry projects are complex and the EIS dependency adds an external timeline risk. I lean slightly toward delay.

Copper porphyry feasibility studies are major undertakings — they require detailed metallurgical testing, mine planning, infrastructure design, and economic modeling. The mid-2026 timeline was likely aspirational. The EIS pending approval creates a hard dependency — without environmental approval, key feasibility parameters (water usage, tailings, land disturbance) cannot be finalized. BVN's engineering and project management resources are stretched by San Gabriel issues. Even the extended end-of-2026 deadline may be tight for a comprehensive feasibility study. I lean toward delay.

The question allows both pre-feasibility and full feasibility study, which is more permissive. A pre-feasibility study is less rigorous and could be completed on a shorter timeline even without full EIS approval. BVN has significantly increased its exploration budget ($90-100M vs $70M historical), showing commitment to pipeline advancement. High copper prices make Trapiche more economically attractive, increasing the incentive to advance the project. The extended deadline (end of 2026 vs mid-2026) provides a 6-month buffer. I rate this as slightly below 50% — the pattern of delays applies but the permissive resolution criteria and increased budget help.

BVN said mid-2026 but has a pattern of missing deadlines. The EIS is pending. Management is distracted by San Gabriel problems. End of 2026 gives some buffer but copper porphyry studies are complex. Lean toward delay — about 40%.

I weight BVN's execution track record heavily. Every major San Gabriel milestone was missed or revised. Trapiche faces similar challenges — complex project in Peru with environmental permitting dependencies. The mid-2026 target was aspirational even before the EIS was confirmed pending. End-of-2026 deadline helps but likely not enough. 35% probability.

The resolution criteria include pre-feasibility, which is a lower bar. BVN has been working on Trapiche for years and the increased exploration budget suggests the project is being actively advanced. A pre-feasibility study could be completed even if the EIS is still in process. 43% — slightly below 50% due to BVN's track record but not strongly pessimistic.

BVN misses deadlines. EIS pending. Complex feasibility study. Mid-2026 target was aspirational. About 38%.

Pre-feasibility option lowers the bar. Increased exploration budget. But BVN's track record and EIS dependency weigh against. Near 40-45% range.

Management attention is on San Gabriel. Trapiche is secondary priority. EIS is pending. Pattern of delays. About 36%.