Will BYND maintain the McDonald's EU partnership across 7+ countries through December 31, 2026?

The question asks whether a currently active multi-country QSR partnership remains active for ~10 more months. QSR procurement decisions operate on multi-year cycles with significant switching costs. The Black Swan Beacon assigned only 5-15% probability to reduction/termination, and no lens contradicted partnership durability. However, BYND's going concern risk and NASDAQ compliance issues are real — if BYND enters bankruptcy or delisting, the partnership could be disrupted. The resolution requires 7+ countries; partial reduction to 6 would resolve NO. McDonald's supplier diversification is a medium-term risk but unlikely to manifest in <10 months given QSR procurement timelines.

The committee's blind consensus on partnership stability is itself a risk flag — no lens rigorously tested this assumption. McDonald's is a sophisticated operator that monitors supplier financial health closely. BYND's going concern language and operational distress could trigger procurement contingency planning, potentially accelerating diversification. However, the 5-15% tail risk estimate was for a longer time horizon. For just the next 10 months, the probability of maintaining 7+ countries should be meaningfully higher, though the committee's untested assumption on durability warrants a larger discount than other runs apply.

A reduction from 7+ to fewer than 7 countries requires active withdrawal from multiple markets simultaneously — operationally unlikely in a short timeframe. Even if McDonald's began diversifying, they would likely run parallel suppliers before cutting BYND. Even Chapter 11 bankruptcy typically preserves key customer relationships as they represent going concern value. The data staleness (142 days) means Q4 2025 results could reveal already-deteriorated partnership, but the resolution criteria require PUBLIC announcement or disclosure, and no such signals exist currently.

This fundamentally asks whether an active partnership stays active for 10 months. QSR partnerships do not unwind in months. The 5-15% tail risk probability from the committee is reasonable for a 1-2 year horizon but should be scaled down significantly for 10 months specifically — approximately 8-12% probability of loss. The main risk is BYND's financial distress forcing operational disruptions (inability to fulfill orders), not McDonald's voluntarily leaving. McDonald's EU has invested in menu integration and marketing; unwinding creates costs for them too.

The committee has blind consensus on this partnership which is concerning. But the facts are clear: no public signals of reduction, active in 7+ countries, and QSR procurement cycles are slow. BYND's financial distress is the real risk vector — going concern language means auditors flagged potential inability to continue operations within 12 months. If BYND cannot manufacture or deliver product, McDonald's has no choice but to find alternatives. But even in severe distress scenarios, the 10-month window is tight for a full unwind from 7+ countries to fewer than 7.

Two scenarios for NO: (1) McDonald's proactively reduces due to supplier diversification strategy, or (2) BYND's operational collapse forces McDonald's hand. Scenario 1 is slow-moving and unlikely in 10 months — QSR supplier changes require qualification of alternatives, testing, menu adaptation. Scenario 2 is the real risk — BYND has going concern language, NASDAQ compliance risk, and 15% revenue decline. But going concern does not mean imminent shutdown; companies operate under going concern for years. The partnership is BYND's most valuable asset (~$60M, 22% of revenue) and would be protected in any restructuring.

Active partnership with no reduction signals plus short 10-month timeframe plus slow QSR procurement cycles equals high probability of continuation. Main risk is BYND financial collapse disrupting supply. Committee's 5-15% tail risk estimate was for a longer horizon; scale down for 10 months. Partnership represents 22% of BYND revenue and would be prioritized in any distress scenario.

Partnership is active in 7+ countries with no public reduction signals. QSR partnerships rarely unwind in under a year. BYND's distress is a concern but companies in financial distress still fulfill key contracts — the partnership is the single most valuable asset. Going concern risk does not mean immediate cessation of operations. Even NASDAQ delisting would not directly affect supply contracts.

Base rate for existing major QSR partnerships continuing 10 months is very high (>90%). Apply discount for BYND's severe financial distress and going concern language — roughly 5-8% additional termination risk beyond the base rate. The committee's 5-15% termination risk over a longer horizon translates to roughly 5-10% for this 10-month window when adjusted for time compression and the absence of any current signals of reduction.