Will BYND receive a NASDAQ non-compliance notice for minimum bid price by June 30, 2026?

BYND stock is trading at $0.71-$0.79, well below the $1.00 threshold. The stock briefly recovered to ~$1.09 in December 2025 but has been declining since, crossing below $1.00 in late December/early January 2026 — approximately 35-40 business days ago. The 30-consecutive-business-day threshold has almost certainly been crossed. With massive dilution (383M shares), ongoing $130-160M annual cash burn, securities class action lawsuits, and no operational improvement catalyst identified by the committee, a sustained recovery above $1.00 before June 30 is extremely unlikely.

The counter-scenario requires either avoiding 30 consecutive days below $1.00 or a sustained recovery above $1.00. The stock traded at $1.09 in mid-December 2025 and has since declined to $0.71, meaning it likely crossed below $1.00 in late December/early January. Even accounting for possible brief intraday touches of $1.00, at $0.71 the stock is too far below for random volatility to reset the clock. Possible but unlikely catalysts: Q4 2025 earnings surprise (reporting today 2/19), acquisition interest, or short squeeze. The committee found 'no evidentiary support' for operational improvement. Leaving 12% for tail scenarios including acquisition announcement or extreme market event.

The September 2025 proxy filing already references the possibility of receiving a NASDAQ non-compliance notice as a trigger condition for reverse split authority, indicating management was preparing for this scenario. Shareholders approved reverse split authority at the September 2025 meeting. The stock has been below $1.00 for approximately 7 weeks since early January. Daily volatility at these price levels is insufficient to produce $1.00 touches — the stock would need multiple 30%+ up days in sequence. The resolution window extends to June 30, leaving 4.5 months. Even with residual uncertainty about the exact 30-day clock start date, the probability of receiving a notice within this generous timeframe is very high.

The math is straightforward. Stock at $0.71, needs $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days to avoid notice. It won't get there. With 383M shares outstanding, $130M+ annual cash burn, securities class action lawsuits filed, and no operational turnaround evident, there is no realistic path to a sustained 40%+ rally. The stock has been below $1.00 since approximately early January 2026 — the 30-business-day threshold has almost certainly already been crossed. This is headed for a non-compliance notice if it hasn't already received one.

The committee's original 30-45% probability estimate was based on the stock trading at $0.93-$0.98. Since then, the stock has dropped to $0.71 and has been below $1.00 for approximately 7 weeks. The committee's estimate was materially too low given current conditions. The non-compliance notice is an automatic regulatory process triggered by 30 consecutive business days below $1.00 — this is not discretionary. The resolution window extends to June 30, giving 4.5 more months. Even if the 30-day clock hasn't fully elapsed (unlikely), it will trigger within days to weeks.

Base rate consideration: of stocks that trade consistently 20-30% below the $1.00 threshold for 30+ business days, essentially all receive non-compliance notices — it's an automatic regulatory process, not a judgment call. The December 2025 recovery to $1.09 likely reset any prior 30-day clock, but the stock has been sub-$1.00 since approximately late December/early January. We're now in late February — approximately 35-40 business days. The notice has likely already been issued or will be within days. Reserving 11% for the possibility that a brief $1.00+ touch in early January reset the clock more recently than estimated, or that Q4 earnings today could catalyze a sharp recovery.

Stock at $0.71, well below $1.00. Below $1.00 for approximately 7 weeks since early January. Non-compliance notice is automatic after 30 consecutive business days. Resolution date June 30 gives 4.5 months — ample time. Very high probability the notice has already been or will soon be issued.

Key data: stock at $0.71, 52-week low $0.50, below $1.00 since early January, massive dilution (383M shares), annual cash burn $130-160M, no recovery catalyst. The 30-day clock has almost certainly expired. Non-compliance notice is regulatory certainty at this point. Only residual uncertainty is exact disclosure timing.

Committee estimated 30-45% when stock was $0.93-$0.98 — stock is now at $0.71, dramatically worsening the outlook. The 30-consecutive-business-day clock has likely already triggered. Leaving 13% for tail scenarios: Q4 earnings catalyst today, unexpected acquisition interest, or brief recovery above $1.00 resetting the clock more recently than estimated.