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Will CCJ insiders continue net selling through 2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(266d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

68%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement98%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Myth Meter and Insider Investigator identified a say-do gap: bullish rhetoric but insider selling. Continued selling would escalate the MIXED governance signal.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 65%70%Aggregate: 68%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
70%

Insider selling at elevated stock prices is the norm for executives with equity compensation. The pattern has been established over multiple quarters. Even with the stock retreating from highs, executives typically continue to diversify. Above 65%.

Established patternNorm for equity-compensated executivesContinued diversification expected
opusRun 2
68%

The say-do gap is well-established. Management rhetoric has been consistently bullish while selling. This behavioral pattern typically persists. Stock price retreat from highs might reduce selling volume but unlikely to flip to net buying. Above 65%.

Say-do gap establishedBehavioral pattern persistsPrice retreat may reduce but not eliminate selling
opusRun 3
67%

Executive selling programs are typically pre-planned (Rule 10b5-1 equivalent in Canada). Once set, they execute automatically. Stopping requires positive action. Around 67%.

Pre-planned selling programsRequire positive action to stopAround 67%
sonnetRun 1
68%

Established selling pattern at elevated prices. Normal executive behavior. Above 65%.

Established patternNormal behaviorAbove 65%
sonnetRun 2
65%

Stock price decline from peaks could slow selling pace but unlikely to reverse pattern. Around 65%.

Price decline slows pacePattern unlikely to reverseAround 65%
sonnetRun 3
70%

Executive compensation structures create ongoing selling pressure. Vestings create shares that naturally get sold. Above 65%.

Compensation structures create sellingVestings create sharesAbove 65%
haikuRun 1
68%

Established pattern. Executive compensation creates selling. Above 65%.

Established patternCompensation creates selling
haikuRun 2
65%

Normal executive behavior at elevated prices. Around 65%.

Normal behaviorElevated prices
haikuRun 3
68%

Pattern well-established and self-reinforcing. Above 65%.

Well-establishedSelf-reinforcing

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CCJ insiders (CEO, CFO, named executives) are net sellers of CCJ stock during calendar 2026 (more shares sold than acquired via open market or exercise-and-hold). Resolves NO if insiders are net neutral or net buyers.

Resolution Source

SEDI filings (Canadian insider trading system)

Source Trigger

Management rhetoric amplifies narrative while simultaneously selling shares — say-do gap

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM
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