CCJActive

Will McArthur River/Key Lake meet its 2026 production target?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

McArthur River operational execution has been mixed (early 2025 delays). Meeting the production target validates operational capability at the flagship mine.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 57%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

McArthur River has the world's highest-grade deposits but experienced delays in 2025. Management presumably learned from these issues and adjusted for 2026. However, underground mining at aging facilities creates inherent operational risk. Slight lean YES based on management adjustment. Around 55%.

Lessons from 2025 delaysAging facility riskManagement adjustment

opusRun 2

52%

Underground mining is inherently unpredictable. Water management, ground conditions, and equipment reliability create ongoing risk. The 2025 experience suggests these risks are real and recurring. Near coin-flip.

Inherently unpredictableWater and ground risksRecurring nature of risk

opusRun 3

57%

High-grade deposits reduce the volume of rock that needs to be mined, simplifying operations relative to lower-grade mines. Management has decades of experience at this site. The 2025 target was set before delays were known; 2026 target likely incorporates lessons learned. Around 57%.

High grade simplifies operationsDecades of site experience2026 target incorporates lessons

sonnetRun 1

55%

Management likely set a more conservative 2026 target after 2025 delays. Operational experience supports. Above coin-flip.

More conservative targetOperational experienceAbove coin-flip

sonnetRun 2

52%

Underground mining risks are structural. Supply flexibility (inventory, spot) can compensate but the production target question is binary. Near coin-flip.

Structural mining risksSupply flexibility doesn't help for this questionNear coin-flip

sonnetRun 3

57%

World-class asset with experienced management. 2026 target should be more achievable given 2025 learnings. Around 57%.

World-class assetExperienced management2025 learnings applied

haikuRun 1

55%

Lessons from 2025 should help. But mining risks are inherent. Above coin-flip.

Lessons learnedInherent risksAbove coin-flip

haikuRun 2

52%

Underground mining unpredictable. Management experienced. Near coin-flip.

UnpredictableExperienced managementNear coin-flip

haikuRun 3

55%

Conservative target post-2025 delays should be achievable. Above coin-flip.

Conservative targetAchievableAbove coin-flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if McArthur River/Key Lake production meets or exceeds the 2026 company target. Resolves NO if production falls short.

Resolution Source

Cameco quarterly production reports or annual report

Source Trigger

McArthur River development delays in early 2025 reduced production targets

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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