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Will Cameco report FY2026 consolidated revenue above C$3.0 billion?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

55%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement98%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Revenue growth demonstrates the demand thesis converting to financials. C$3B would represent meaningful growth and validate that contract repricing and volume growth are materializing.

REVENUE_DURABILITYEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 52%57%Aggregate: 55%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
55%

The 230M lb contract book with C$85-89/lb guided realized pricing provides a revenue floor. Adding conversion revenue (record production at Port Hope), fuel services, and Westinghouse equity income, C$3B is achievable. But production execution risk (McArthur River delays) and contract delivery schedules create uncertainty. Above coin-flip.

Contract book provides floorConversion at recordsProduction execution risk
opusRun 2
53%

C$3B is a round number that may or may not align precisely with the revenue trajectory. Contract pricing is guided but actual deliveries depend on production and purchase volumes. CAD/USD effects add uncertainty. Slight lean YES.

Round number thresholdDelivery depends on productionFX uncertainty
opusRun 3
57%

India deal adds meaningfully to the contract book. Conversion revenue at historic pricing supports. Westinghouse contributions growing. Multiple revenue streams converge. Around 57%.

India deal adds revenueConversion at historic pricingMultiple streams converge
sonnetRun 1
55%

Contract book and guided pricing support. Production risk is main downside. Above coin-flip.

Contract supportProduction riskAbove coin-flip
sonnetRun 2
52%

C$3B may be above or below the actual guidance depending on specific delivery schedules. Slightly above coin-flip.

Alignment with guidance uncertainDelivery schedulesSlight lean YES
sonnetRun 3
57%

Multiple revenue streams (uranium, conversion, fuel services, Westinghouse) converging. Contract pricing at C$85-89/lb is strong. Around 57%.

Revenue stream diversificationStrong contract pricingAround 57%
haikuRun 1
55%

Contract book supports. Production risk exists. Above coin-flip.

Contract supportProduction riskAbove coin-flip
haikuRun 2
52%

C$3B threshold alignment uncertain. Slight lean YES.

Threshold alignmentSlight lean YES
haikuRun 3
55%

Multiple revenue streams and strong pricing support. Above coin-flip.

Revenue streamsStrong pricingAbove coin-flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 consolidated revenue exceeds C$3.0 billion. Resolves NO if C$3.0B or below.

Resolution Source

Cameco FY2026 earnings release or annual report

Source Trigger

Revenue conditional on uranium price trajectory and contract mix; 230M lb contract book

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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