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CCJActive

Will Cameco report FY2026 consolidated revenue above C$3.0 billion?

Resolves February 28, 2027(238d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Revenue growth demonstrates the demand thesis converting to financials. C$3B would represent meaningful growth and validate that contract repricing and volume growth are materializing.

REVENUE_DURABILITYEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 57%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

The 230M lb contract book with C$85-89/lb guided realized pricing provides a revenue floor. Adding conversion revenue (record production at Port Hope), fuel services, and Westinghouse equity income, C$3B is achievable. But production execution risk (McArthur River delays) and contract delivery schedules create uncertainty. Above coin-flip.

Contract book provides floorConversion at recordsProduction execution risk

opusRun 2

53%

C$3B is a round number that may or may not align precisely with the revenue trajectory. Contract pricing is guided but actual deliveries depend on production and purchase volumes. CAD/USD effects add uncertainty. Slight lean YES.

Round number thresholdDelivery depends on productionFX uncertainty

opusRun 3

57%

India deal adds meaningfully to the contract book. Conversion revenue at historic pricing supports. Westinghouse contributions growing. Multiple revenue streams converge. Around 57%.

India deal adds revenueConversion at historic pricingMultiple streams converge

sonnetRun 1

55%

Contract book and guided pricing support. Production risk is main downside. Above coin-flip.

Contract supportProduction riskAbove coin-flip

sonnetRun 2

52%

C$3B may be above or below the actual guidance depending on specific delivery schedules. Slightly above coin-flip.

Alignment with guidance uncertainDelivery schedulesSlight lean YES

sonnetRun 3

57%

Multiple revenue streams (uranium, conversion, fuel services, Westinghouse) converging. Contract pricing at C$85-89/lb is strong. Around 57%.

Revenue stream diversificationStrong contract pricingAround 57%

haikuRun 1

55%

Contract book supports. Production risk exists. Above coin-flip.

Contract supportProduction riskAbove coin-flip

haikuRun 2

52%

C$3B threshold alignment uncertain. Slight lean YES.

Threshold alignmentSlight lean YES

haikuRun 3

55%

Multiple revenue streams and strong pricing support. Above coin-flip.

Revenue streamsStrong pricingAbove coin-flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 consolidated revenue exceeds C$3.0 billion. Resolves NO if C$3.0B or below.

Resolution Source

Cameco FY2026 earnings release or annual report

Source Trigger

Revenue conditional on uranium price trajectory and contract mix; 230M lb contract book

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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