CCJActive

Will uranium spot price average above $75/lb for FY2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Uranium spot price is the key sentiment indicator. Spot retreated from $100+ to $60-70, signaling narrative cooling. If spot recovers above $75, it re-validates the nuclear renaissance pricing.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 43%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Uranium spot has retreated from $100+ to $60-70 range. For the annual average to exceed $75, spot needs to recover and sustain above $75 for most of the remaining year. The retreat signals speculative unwind. Structural fundamentals support long-term prices but the near-term trajectory is downward. Below coin-flip.

Spot in $60-70 rangeSpeculative unwind underwayStructural fundamentals intact but long-dated

opusRun 2

40%

The Q1 average was likely in the $65-70 range. For the annual average to reach $75, the remaining 9 months would need to average ~$77+. This requires a price recovery from current levels. Supply discipline from Kazatomprom (acid shortages) and Cameco (withheld capacity) supports a floor, but $75+ requires demand catalysts. Around 40%.

Q1 average likely $65-70Need remaining months at $77+Supply discipline provides floor but not enough

opusRun 3

43%

The Russia import ban and utility contracting cycle provide structural support. A new wave of utility buying could push spot above $75. But the speculative retreat suggests the market is repricing from the narrative peak. The annual average framework requires sustained recovery. Around 42%.

Russia ban provides structural supportSpeculative repricing underwayUtility buying could trigger recovery

sonnetRun 1

40%

Spot at $60-70 with $75 target requires meaningful recovery. Structural demand is real but long-dated. Near-term sentiment is negative. Below coin-flip.

Recovery neededLong-dated demandNegative near-term sentiment

sonnetRun 2

43%

Kazatomprom supply issues and Russia ban could tighten the physical market. But financial selling may dominate near-term. Around 43%.

Physical market tighteningFinancial selling dominatesAround 43%

sonnetRun 3

42%

The probability reflects that spot recovery to $75+ average is possible but requires catalysts that haven't yet materialized. Around 42%.

Recovery possibleCatalysts not yet materializedAround 42%

haikuRun 1

42%

Spot retreat makes $75 average challenging. Supply discipline helps but not enough. Below coin-flip.

Spot retreatSupply disciplineBelow coin-flip

haikuRun 2

38%

Q1 average likely in $65-70. Need significant recovery for $75 annual average. Below 40%.

Q1 dragSignificant recovery neededBelow 40%

haikuRun 3

42%

Structural fundamentals support but near-term sentiment is negative. Below coin-flip.

Structural supportNegative sentimentBelow coin-flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if average uranium spot price exceeds $75/lb for calendar 2026. Resolves NO if average is $75/lb or below.

Resolution Source

UxC, TradeTech, or Cameco quarterly disclosures

Source Trigger

Uranium spot retreated from $100+ to $60-70 range; narrative cooling signal

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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