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Will Westinghouse report EBITDA above $500M in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(238d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement99%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Westinghouse (49% owned) is the downstream integration thesis. Strong EBITDA validates the acquisition and the demand pipeline from $80B US government commitment.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 48% – 52%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

50%

$500M EBITDA for Westinghouse depends on reactor service contract volume, new build progress payments, and fuel fabrication margins. Limited visibility into Westinghouse standalone financials. The $80B US commitment is positive but revenue timing is multi-year. True coin-flip.

Limited financial visibilityMulti-year revenue timingTrue coin-flip

opusRun 2

48%

$500M may be above current Westinghouse run-rate. New build revenue is lumpy. Service contracts are stable but may not be growing fast enough. Slight lean below coin-flip.

May be above current run-rateNew build revenue lumpyService contracts stable

opusRun 3

52%

Government commitment and growing nuclear fleet provide revenue tailwind. Reactor services are high-margin recurring revenue. The $500M threshold may align with the growth trajectory if AP1000 orders are advancing. Near coin-flip.

Government commitment tailwindHigh-margin servicesAP1000 order progress

sonnetRun 1

50%

Insufficient visibility into Westinghouse standalone EBITDA. True coin-flip.

Insufficient visibilityTrue coin-flip

sonnetRun 2

48%

$500M may be ambitious for near-term. Government commitment is long-dated. Slight lean below coin-flip.

Ambitious for near-termLong-dated commitmentBelow coin-flip

sonnetRun 3

52%

Nuclear services demand is growing. If reactor extensions drive incremental work, $500M is achievable. Near coin-flip.

Growing demandReactor extensions helpNear coin-flip

haikuRun 1

50%

Limited visibility. True coin-flip.

Limited visibilityCoin-flip

haikuRun 2

48%

May be above current run-rate. Slight lean NO.

Above run-rateSlight lean NO

haikuRun 3

50%

Growing demand supports but timing uncertain. Coin-flip.

Growing demandTiming uncertainCoin-flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Westinghouse Electric Company reports FY2026 EBITDA above $500 million. Resolves NO if $500M or below.

Resolution Source

Cameco quarterly disclosures or Westinghouse financial statements

Source Trigger

49% Westinghouse ownership extends moat downstream; $80B US government commitment

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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