Will CDE insiders maintain zero discretionary selling through H1 2026?

The established pattern of zero selling is a strong anchor, and the integration year creates additional incentive to maintain confidence signaling. However, the stock is up 400%+, creating enormous unrealized gains. The 3-month window (April-June) is relatively short, which increases the probability of maintaining zero selling. Mining CEO culture favors holding but personal diversification needs increase with portfolio concentration.

The key insight is that this pattern has been maintained through a 400%+ run — the very scenario where selling pressure is highest. If insiders were going to sell, the economic incentive has been present for months. The fact that zero selling has persisted suggests a deliberate commitment that is unlikely to break in a 3-month window without a specific catalyst (like the deal closing and creating a natural 'chapter close' moment).

While the pattern is strong, the general base rate for insider selling in any 6-month period is 40-50% for mining executives. The question specifies H1 2026 which is 6 months, not 3. This includes the potential deal close period, which could trigger 'mission accomplished' selling. The unusual restraint may not persist once the integration narrative shifts. Still favoring YES given the established pattern but only marginally.

This is genuinely uncertain. The zero-selling pattern is remarkable but unsustainable indefinitely. A 400%+ run with no diversification is extreme portfolio concentration. H1 2026 is 6 months — enough time for the pattern to break. The base rate for mining executive selling is ~40-50% in any 6-month period, and CDE insiders are well above average in unrealized gains, creating above-average selling pressure.

I'm weighting the base rate more heavily here. Zero selling through a 400%+ run is statistically unusual and the longer it persists, the more likely a break becomes. Reversion to the mean suggests some selling will occur. Estate planning, charitable giving, or personal needs provide face-saving cover. The New Gold deal close could be the catalyst that 'unlocks' selling.

Very low conviction on this market. The established pattern is a genuine positive signal but the economic pressure to diversify is enormous. The resolution criteria exclude 10b5-1 and tax withholding, which helps — many insider 'sales' are actually tax-related. The specific exclusion of non-discretionary sales modestly increases YES probability since some percentage of insider transactions are non-discretionary.

Pattern of zero selling is strong but 6 months is a long window. Base rate suggests 40-50% chance of selling in any 6-month period. CDE insiders have been remarkably disciplined. Marginally favor YES based on established pattern.

400%+ gains, 6-month window, and general base rate all suggest selling is likely at some point. The pattern may break. Very close to coin-flip with slight lean toward NO given the magnitude of unrealized gains.

True coin-flip. Pattern is strong but economic incentive to sell is also strong. Resolution criteria help by excluding non-discretionary sales. Could go either way with equal probability.