Will Rochester crush 6.0M+ metric tonnes in Q1 2026?

Q4 2025 delivered 6.4M tonnes and January 2026 alone hit 2.3M (annualized ~6.9M). The three-stage crushing circuit is operational and proven. However, Rochester has a history of disappointing, and a single mechanical failure could derail a quarter. The January pace is encouraging but one month is not a full quarter. Weather and operational disruptions remain possible.

The operational data is strongly positive — both Q4 2025 and January 2026 are above pace. But Rochester's troubled history demands a discount. The leach pad expansion work could create disruptions. A 10-15% variability band on the January pace still keeps throughput above 6.0M, which provides some buffer. Weight the positive recent data against historical pattern of disappointment.

The three-stage crushing circuit has been operational for multiple months now, suggesting the ramp-up phase is behind us. Steady-state operations have lower variance than ramp-up. January 2026 at 2.3M tonnes leaves approximately 15% buffer above the 2.0M/month pace needed. Equipment reliability at steady state is the key variable. Mining operations that have achieved steady state typically maintain throughput 90%+ of the time.

January 2026 data is very encouraging but represents one month. Q1 includes February-March which can have severe Nevada winter weather. Rochester has historically underperformed management guidance. The 6.0M threshold is below recent performance but Rochester's track record demands skepticism until a full quarter confirms the trend.

The positive data (6.4M in Q4, 2.3M in January) is compelling, but I'm weighting Rochester's multi-year history of delays and underperformance more heavily. The crushing circuit is still optimizing P80 crush size — this is not yet at steady state. Leach pad work could cause disruptions. The probability is above 50% based on recent performance but well below the implied certainty of the January pace.

The 6.0M threshold is set at a level that Q4 2025 already exceeded (6.4M). This means the question is really whether Q1 can maintain Q4 levels, not whether it can achieve a new milestone. Maintaining throughput is generally easier than achieving it initially. Weather is the primary risk factor for Q1 specifically. The balance of evidence favors YES but with meaningful uncertainty.

Q4 2025 achieved 6.4M and January 2026 was on pace for ~6.9M quarterly. Crushing circuit is operational. The threshold is below proven capability. Rochester's history of issues provides a meaningful discount but recent data dominates. Moderate-high probability.

Rochester's track record warrants caution despite strong recent months. Mechanical failures, weather events, or leach pad work could each reduce throughput below 6.0M. The threshold is realistic based on recent data but the asset has a pattern of operational surprises.

Balancing the strong January pace and Q4 achievement against Rochester's troubled history. The three-stage circuit is now proven through a full quarter. At steady state, maintaining throughput is more probable than achieving it initially. Probability in the low 70s reflects both the positive data and the historical discount.