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Will CE's combined H2 2026 (Q3 + Q4) adjusted EBITDA print below $1.0B?

Resolves February 28, 2027(309d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

H2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is the cyclical-recovery validation window. The committee anchored mid-cycle EBITDA at $2.5B implying H2 2026 should run at $900M-1.1B with cycle traction. A combined H2 below $1B indicates the cycle-extension scenario from Black Swan Beacon (10-15% probability with 50-70% drawdown) is materializing. A combined H2 at $1.1B+ would validate the recovery framing across stress-scanner, roadkill-radar, and myth-meter simultaneously. This market is the meta-check on whether the cycle thesis is operating in time for 2027 covenant compliance.

REVENUE_DURABILITYFUNDING_FRAGILITYEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 32%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

30%

Mgmt FY2026 guide implies $1.7-1.9B EBITDA. H2 typically 55-58% of FY in chemicals = $935M-$1.10B at the low end of guide. Threshold $1.0B sits right at low-end-of-guide territory. Combined H2 below $1.0B requires either FY guide miss OR H2 weighting weaker than typical. Cycle-extension scenario (10-15%) maps to ~25-30% probability for this market when overlay seasonal/working-capital variability is added. ~30%.

Guide implies $935M-$1.10B H2Threshold at low-end-of-guideCycle-extension overlay

opusRun 2

28%

Mgmt narrative protection post-Citi rally creates incentive to deliver H2 in line. Cost-out program executing. EM pipeline 60-75% target — middle case. Tow contract reset uncertainty pulls probability slightly higher. Net ~28%.

Narrative protectionCost-out executionTow reset risk

opusRun 3

32%

Three risk factors compound: (1) auto/durables 2-year extension at 15-20% prob; (2) tow reset unfavorable at 30-40% prob; (3) EM pipeline shortfall at 25-30% prob. Conjunction (any two materializing) brings H2 EBITDA below $1.0B with moderate probability. Net ~32%.

Auto/durables extension riskTow resetEM pipeline shortfall

sonnetRun 1

32%

Threshold $1.0B is at the conservative end of guide-implied H2. Probability of H2 below this end ~30-35%. Cycle-extension scenario with 10-15% probability adds asymmetric downside. ~32%.

Conservative end of guideProbability distributionCycle-extension asymmetric

sonnetRun 2

30%

Base rate: chemicals trough years FY guides hit ~70% of time on H2 distribution. CE-specific: mgmt has executed FY guide reasonably in recent quarters. ~30%.

Sector base rateCE-specific executionRecent tracking

sonnetRun 3

30%

FY2026 guide $1.7-1.9B. H2 expectation $900M-$1.1B. $1.0B threshold central. Slight skew toward miss given cycle-extension tail. ~30%.

Central thresholdCycle-extension tailSkew direction

haikuRun 1

30%

Guide implies H2 ~$1.0B. Threshold central. Cycle extension overlay. ~30%.

Guide implicationCentral thresholdCycle extension

haikuRun 2

28%

Mgmt narrative protection. Cost-out execution. EM pipeline middle case. ~28%.

Narrative pressureCost-outEM pipeline

haikuRun 3

30%

Multiple risks compounding. Threshold near central case. ~30%.

Compounding risksCentral threshold

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the sum of CE's reported Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA (as defined in CE's earnings releases) is below $1.0B. Resolves NO if combined Q3+Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at or above $1.0B.

Resolution Source

CE Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 earnings releases and 10-K FY2026 filing

Source Trigger

Adjusted EBITDA H2 2026 <$1B combined

stress-scannerREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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