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Will CE report Q1 2026 free cash flow below $130M?

Resolves May 15, 2026(20d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Q1 2026 FCF is the first survival data point for the recovery thesis. CE guided FY2026 FCF to $650-750M with the Q1 historical pattern running 15-20% of full-year. A sub-$130M Q1 print would invalidate the run-rate math behind the FY guide and push FUNDING_FRAGILITY toward STRAINED. A clean print at or above $130M would validate the survival math and de-escalate stress-scanner concerns. This market directly tests the load-bearing $700M FY2025 actual / $650-750M FY2026 guide that anchors four lens assessments.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 35%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

32%

Q1 chemicals seasonality runs 15-20% of FY FCF — at the $650M low end of guide that's $98-130M; at $700M (FY2025 actual run-rate) it's $105-140M. China JV dividend timing pushed post-Q1-audit deducts ~$50-100M from Q1 receipts vs prior pattern. That alone moves the central case toward sub-$130M. Mgmt has executed FCF discipline (CapEx maintenance, working capital release), so absolute floor probably ~$80-100M. The threshold ($130M) sits right at the natural Q1 seasonal cluster. Probability ~30-35%.

Q1 seasonality 15-20%China JV timing -$50-100MMgmt FCF discipline anchors floor

opusRun 2

30%

Triangulating: $700M FY2025 with Q1 typically lowest; FY2026 guide $650-750M slightly weaker. Q1 2026 expectation $100-150M base case. The $130M threshold is roughly central. Working capital direction ambiguous — could go either way ±$50M. Methanol input cost stable. Auto/durables Q1 weak per mgmt commentary. Net: ~28-32% probability of sub-$130M print.

FY guide $650-750MQ1 expectation $100-150MThreshold near central case

opusRun 3

28%

Mgmt has strong incentive to deliver Q1 in line — narrative protection post-Citi rally. Even if China JV timing pushes receipts, working capital release can backfill. Counter-argument: chemicals Q1 seasonality is real and CE has no recent track record of upside surprise. Bias slightly below 30% given mgmt narrative pressure to deliver. ~28%.

Mgmt narrative pressureWorking capital backfill optionCycle trough makes upside surprise less likely

sonnetRun 1

35%

Three concerns push probability higher: (1) Q1 always weakest quarter; (2) China JV dividend timing change is well-documented headwind; (3) mgmt acknowledged 'demand backdrop is certainly not where we were' on Q4 2025 call — Q1 reflects this directly. Counter: working capital release can buffer; mgmt has track record of FCF discipline. ~32-37% range; pick 35%.

Q1 seasonal weaknessChina JV timing impactDemand commentary

sonnetRun 2

30%

Base rate: cyclical chemicals Q1 FCF below 20% of guide low-end happens ~30% of time. CE-specific: mgmt FCF discipline strong, narrative protection incentive high. Net 30%.

Sector base rateMgmt discipline offsetNarrative protection

sonnetRun 3

32%

Q1 2026 expectation: $100-145M central range. Threshold $130M sits at ~70th percentile of range. Probability of falling below = 30-35%. Slight lean toward 32% given JV timing skew.

Central range $100-145MThreshold at 70th percentileJV timing skew

haikuRun 1

30%

Q1 weakest quarter. China JV timing headwind. Mgmt discipline offset. ~30%.

Q1 seasonalityJV timingMgmt offset

haikuRun 2

32%

FCF guide $650-750M. Q1 typical 15-20%. Threshold $130M = ~18% of low guide. Roughly central. ~32%.

Guide rangeSeasonal patternCentral threshold

haikuRun 3

28%

Mgmt narrative protection + FCF discipline. Q1 typical pattern but mgmt likely overdelivers post-Citi rally. ~28%.

Narrative pressureMgmt disciplineCycle context

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CE's Q1 2026 earnings release or 10-Q filing discloses free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, as defined in CE's earnings disclosures) below $130M. Resolves NO if Q1 2026 FCF is at or above $130M.

Resolution Source

CE Q1 2026 earnings release, earnings call slides, and 10-Q filing

Source Trigger

Quarterly FCF <$130M any quarter

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYCRITICAL

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