Will data center clean energy PPAs signed in H1 2026 remain concentrated among 4 or fewer providers?

Resolves September 15, 2026(162d)

IG: 0.60

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if, based on public disclosures through Q2 2026 earnings (July-August 2026), 80% or more of newly announced data center clean energy PPAs (by MW capacity) are signed by 4 or fewer providers. Resolves NO if 5 or more distinct providers each capture at least 10% of newly disclosed data center PPA capacity.

Resolution Source

Company earnings calls, 10-Q filings, and press releases for Q1-Q2 2026

Source Trigger

Data center PPAs remain concentrated among 3-4 firms (BE $20B backlog, AES 8.2 GW, NRG 5.4 GW pipeline). Hyperscalers require firm, dispatchable, carbon-free power — structurally excluding half the sector.

competitive-chessboardCOMPETITIVE_DYNAMICSHIGH

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