Will OBBBA or successor legislation shorten IRA clean energy tax credit qualification windows by 3 or more years before January 1, 2027?

Resolves January 15, 2027(284d)

IG: 0.80

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if by December 31, 2026, enacted federal legislation (OBBBA or any other bill signed into law) reduces the qualification window for any major IRA clean energy tax credit (45X manufacturing, 48E ITC, 45Y PTC, or 45V hydrogen) by 3 or more years from current law. Resolves NO if no such legislation is enacted or if modifications shorten windows by less than 3 years.

Resolution Source

Congressional legislation tracker (congress.gov), signed bills, IRS guidance

Source Trigger

OBBBA final text on IRA credit timelines — 3-year vs. 10-year runway shapes subsidy-dependent business model viability. At least three companies have returns materially dependent on continued IRA/ITC/DOE support.

disruption-vector-scannerDISRUPTION_EXPOSUREHIGH

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