Will Coherent disclose that Nvidia accounts for >25% of total revenue by Q4 FY2026?

The $2B+ multiyear Nvidia partnership against ~$6.5B annualized revenue strongly suggests Nvidia could be 25-30% of revenue. However, the $2B+ is a multiyear figure — annual revenue from Nvidia depends on the contract's delivery schedule. SEC requires disclosure of 10%+ customers, so the 25% threshold may already be met but not yet disclosed in the most recent 10-Q. Management has avoided explicit percentage disclosure, which itself is informative.

The question is whether disclosure happens by Q4 FY2026. Even if Nvidia is >25%, disclosure is only required in annual 10-K filings for concentration risk, not quarterly 10-Qs necessarily. Management might not voluntarily disclose on earnings calls either. The information may exist but not be disclosed in the required timeframe.

Given the aggressive ramp of Nvidia's AI infrastructure spending and Coherent's position as the primary optical interconnect supplier, the revenue percentage from Nvidia is likely growing each quarter. With the Networking segment being the primary growth driver and Nvidia being the anchor customer, exceeding 25% by the June 2026 quarter is plausible. Analyst questions on earnings calls may force the disclosure.

Coin flip. The math suggests Nvidia could be 25%+ ($2B+ over 3-5 years = $400-700M/year against $6.5B), but multiyear contracts often have ramp schedules. The early years might have lower revenue than later years. Also, the question requires formal disclosure, not just the actual percentage exceeding 25%.

Companies typically disclose 10%+ customers in their 10-K annual reports. If Nvidia is already above 10% (very likely), the annual 10-K for FY2026 (filed Aug-Sep 2026) would disclose this. The question is whether they exceed 25%. Given the Networking segment is the fastest-growing and Nvidia is the anchor, 25%+ is increasingly likely as the fiscal year progresses.

Low confidence because the actual Nvidia revenue percentage is unknown. The $2B+ figure is a total contract value, not annual. If the contract spans 3-5 years with back-loaded delivery, Nvidia could be only 10-15% of current revenue even though the total deal is large. The question resolution also depends on the specific form of disclosure.

Large deal plus primary customer position suggests concentration is high. Networking is the dominant growth segment. Disclosure likely in annual 10-K.

Uncertainty about contract phasing and exact revenue timing. The 25% threshold is specific. May be just under rather than over.

AI spending acceleration means Nvidia orders are likely front-loaded, not back-loaded. Optical interconnect demand is urgent. This pushes concentration higher sooner.