Will the Korlym scripts-vs-tablets gap narrow below 10 percentage points in the Q1 2026 10-Q?

Base rate for specialty pharmacy vendor transition gap-closure within one quarter is approximately 55-70% when root cause is operational (inventory/restocking) rather than structural (demand breakdown). CFO Maduck's 'operationally resolved' framing at Q4 2025 earnings 2026-02-24 carries evidentiary weight - management gets ~60% credibility on operational statements vs their 30-40% on forward outlook. Counterweights: (1) 2 additional pharmacy onboardings during 2026 create residual friction, (2) AG mix shift to 78% creates ASP noise that complicates the measurement, (3) management doesn't disclose gap directly so analysts back-solve, introducing resolution ambiguity. The 10pp threshold (from 24pp) is meaningful narrowing but not full normalization, making it more achievable than 0pp gap. Net: 0.52.

Two concerns pull probability below 50/50: (1) MEASUREMENT AMBIGUITY - the question requires that scripts-vs-tablets gap be disclosed or calculable from the 10-Q, and Corcept doesn't typically disclose scripts count directly. If the 10-Q doesn't enable clean calculation, the question defaults to NO under the strict criteria. This mechanical risk is ~20-25%. (2) AG MIX SHIFT - with AG at 78% volume, ASP is declining on a per-tablet basis, which means tablet shipment growth UNDERSTATES dollar revenue growth. Even if the operational issue is fully resolved, mechanical ASP effects could keep the gap wider than 10pp. Combined, these factors argue the probability is below base rate: 0.48.

Weighting the arguments: (1) Q4 2025 disruption was specific to Curant Health onboarding, which is now 2 full quarters old by Q1 2026 close - typical specialty pharmacy transitions stabilize in 1-2 quarters; (2) Baker's $3.3M open-market buy at $33.14 on 2026-03-17 - AFTER Q4 earnings disclosure of the disruption - is a revealed-preference signal that Q4 was viewed as transitory, not structural; (3) Q3 2025 pre-disruption pattern showed normal relationship. These three factors tilt toward gap closure. Offsetting: AG mix shift complicates measurement, and strict resolution criteria penalize ambiguity. Slightly above coin-flip at 0.55.

Coin flip with the following tilts. Pro: management 'operationally resolved' + 2-quarter stabilization typical + Baker buy. Con: measurement ambiguity in 10-Q + AG mix shift ASP effect + 2 additional pharmacy onboardings during 2026. The 10pp threshold is reasonable (half of 24pp) so mathematically achievable without full normalization. Settle at 0.50.

The Q4 2025 $65-90M shortfall pattern: if transitory, Q1 should show catch-up (i.e., tablets growth exceeds scripts growth briefly). If structural, Q1 shows continued lag. The base case for vendor onboarding disruptions in specialty pharma is transitory resolution in 1-2 quarters. Q1 2026 is 1 quarter post-disruption close; Curant should be at steady state. Operational signal strong. Slightly above base at 0.55.

The question isn't binary clean: scripts and tablets growth rates need to be within 10pp of each other. Given AG mix shift is ongoing, tablet growth rate is systematically depressed vs script growth rate even absent pharmacy disruption. This structural gap is ~5-10pp just from ASP/mix effect. Layering in 1-2pp residual transition noise, and 1-2pp new-pharmacy onboarding noise, the 10pp threshold is close. Below coin-flip at 0.45.

Vendor onboarding stabilizes in 1-2 quarters typically. Q1 2026 = Q2 post-Curant onboarding. Management says 'operationally resolved'. AG mix shift complicates measurement. 10pp threshold reasonable. Coin flip 0.50.

Base rate 55-65% for gap closure post-one-quarter on operational transitions. Baker insider buy signal reinforces transitory read. Settle near base rate 0.55.

AG mix shift creates persistent mechanical gap (~5-10pp). New pharmacy onboardings add 1-2pp noise. Strict criteria: 10pp threshold achievable but not default. Slightly below 50/50 at 0.45.