Will Copart's ASP growth advantage over competitors narrow to less than 2x by Q4 FY2026?

The ASP growth advantage has been sustained at 3-5x for multiple quarters with no narrowing trend. This advantage is structurally driven by international buyer participation (38% higher values) and 20-year online platform head start. For the gap to narrow to below 2x by Q4 FY2026 (approximately 1-2 quarters away), IAA/RB Global would need to more than double their ASP growth rate while Copart's declined — an extremely compressed timeline for structural competitive change. The Moat Mapper confirmed the gap has NOT narrowed post-IAA/RB Global merger.

The resolution criteria include 'any two consecutive quarters through Q4 FY2026' — this captures Q3 FY2026 (ending January 2026, already passed) and Q4 FY2026. If Q3 data (yet to be reported publicly) shows narrowing AND Q4 continues the trend, this could resolve YES. However, the committee found no evidence of narrowing in the most recent quarters. IAA integration benefits from the Ritchie Bros merger could theoretically improve ASP growth, but the 2-3 year integration timeline means material improvement by Q4 FY2026 is unlikely.

The committee's evidence is unambiguous: the gap fluctuates between 3x and 5x but has shown no consistent narrowing pattern. The self-reinforcing auction liquidity flywheel (more buyers → higher returns → more consignment → more buyers) is actively widening. Purple Wave (Copart's heavy equipment platform) growing 10-17% annually neutralizes the combined RB Global competitive argument. For the gap to narrow to below 2x, a fundamental structural shift would need to already be underway — and there is no evidence of this.

The data strongly favors NO. ASP growth differential has been 3-5x for the quarters reviewed, driven by structural international buyer participation advantage. The question asks about two consecutive quarters — even one quarter below 2x would be unprecedented in recent history. Used car price dynamics could theoretically compress the gap if Copart's ASPs decline while IAA's remain stable, but this would require a specific international buyer pullback that current trends do not support.

I assign somewhat higher probability because of measurement uncertainty. Copart cites 'more than threefold' and 'more than fivefold' — these are management-provided comparisons, not independent measurements. If RB Global reports strong ASP growth in upcoming quarters (integration gains materializing), the gap could narrow more than management rhetoric suggests. Additionally, if used car market conditions compress all ASPs, the percentage differential could narrow even without competitive shifts.

The structural drivers of ASP advantage are deeply embedded: 300,000+ global buyers, 20-year online platform maturity, physical infrastructure (300+ yards), and Title Express integration. These are not factors that change in 1-2 quarters. IAA would need to replicate decades of platform development to meaningfully close the gap. The timeline is simply too short for the competitive dynamics to shift enough to push below 2x.

ASP gap at 3-5x with no narrowing trend. Structural advantage from international buyers and platform maturity. 1-2 quarter timeline too short for competitive shift. Very low probability.

The gap has fluctuated (3x to 5x) suggesting some volatility, but consistently above 2x. Even at the low end of recent fluctuation (3x), a further narrowing to below 2x requires an additional 33% compression. This is very unlikely in 1-2 quarters absent an external shock.

Committee evidence is clear: auction liquidity flywheel widening, IAA merger has not closed gap, all five metrics at all-time highs. The question is nearly asking if a widening trend will suddenly reverse by 60%+ within 2 quarters. Minimum-probability event.