CRCLActive

Will Circle's non-reserve revenue exceed 5% of total revenue in any quarter of FY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.52

Current Prediction

22%

Likely No

Model Agreement80%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Non-reserve revenue percentage is the key metric for the platform vs money market fund debate. If CPN/Arc/USYC contribute >5% of revenue, it begins validating the platform thesis. If <2%, the money market fund comparison strengthens.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 18% – 25%Aggregate: 22%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

20%

CPN generates only ~9-15M annually. 5% threshold requires ~40M+ per quarter from near zero.

CPN small5% high bar

opusRun 2

25%

CPN generates only ~9-15M annually. 5% threshold requires ~40M+ per quarter from near zero.

CPN small5% high bar

opusRun 3

18%

CPN generates only ~9-15M annually. 5% threshold requires ~40M+ per quarter from near zero.

CPN small5% high bar

sonnetRun 1

22%

500+ CPN partners in pipeline. 2026 likely too early for 5%.

Pipeline growthToo early

sonnetRun 2

20%

500+ CPN partners in pipeline. 2026 likely too early for 5%.

Pipeline growthToo early

sonnetRun 3

25%

500+ CPN partners in pipeline. 2026 likely too early for 5%.

Pipeline growthToo early

haikuRun 1

22%

Low probability in 2026 timeframe.

Early stage

haikuRun 2

20%

Low probability in 2026 timeframe.

Early stage

haikuRun 3

25%

Low probability in 2026 timeframe.

Early stage

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Circle reports non-reserve revenue exceeding 5% of total revenue in any Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 2026 quarterly report.

Resolution Source

Circle quarterly earnings releases, revenue breakdowns

Source Trigger

Non-reserve revenue exceeds 10% of total

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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