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Will the Colombia divestiture receive regulatory approval by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

67%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Divesting Colombia at 10x EBITDA, removing FCPA jurisdiction. Expected year-end 2026 approval. Simplifies portfolio.

REGULATORY_EXPOSURE

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 63% – 72%Aggregate: 67%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

72%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

70%

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opusRun 3

68%

See prediction context for full analysis.

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sonnetRun 1

65%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

63%

See prediction context for full analysis.

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sonnetRun 3

67%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

68%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

65%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

67%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if regulatory approvals received by Dec 31, 2026. Resolves NO if pending.

Resolution Source

CX press release or filing

Source Trigger

Colombia exit at 10x EBITDA; removes FCPA jurisdiction; expected year-end 2026

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREMEDIUM

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