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Will CX achieve net US cement price increases of $8/ton or more in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

$8/ton cement price increases announced for US. Competitive markets may resist. Price increases demonstrate pricing power; resistance signals competitive pressure.

COMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 55%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

50%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

55%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

48%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

45%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

50%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

50%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

48%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

48%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if net US cement prices increase $8+/ton FY2026 vs FY2025. Resolves NO if below $8.

Resolution Source

CX management commentary

Source Trigger

$8/ton announced; Houston, NorCal, Atlanta may resist

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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