Will any major OSB state (NY, NJ, PA, MI, OH) increase gaming tax rates in 2026?

Illinois established precedent but other major states have not followed yet. NY already at 51% -- limited room. NJ at ~13% and PA at ~36% have room but NJ depends on gaming revenue and is unlikely to increase during competitive expansion. State legislative sessions are slow. The question covers any of 5 states, which increases the probability somewhat. But passing tax increases requires overcoming operator lobbying.

State budget pressures exist but gaming tax increases face lobbying opposition and take time to pass. Most state legislative sessions run Jan-June, and implementation would need to be effective 2026-2027. The question requires enactment in 2026, which is a tight timeline for states that have not yet introduced legislation. Illinois took years of debate before raising rates.

Five major states gives 5 chances. PA and OH are the most likely candidates -- both have discussed gaming revenue optimization. CEO argument about prediction markets discouraging increases is untested. On base rates, state tax increases happen regularly across various industries, but specific to OSB the industry is still relatively new and states want to encourage growth before extracting more revenue.

The question is whether ANY of 5 major states increases rates -- wider net increases probability. Illinois precedent is real. State budgets under pressure post-pandemic. However, most states view OSB as a growth industry and are cautious about killing the golden goose. Michigan and Ohio are relatively new OSB states unlikely to increase rates this early. NJ and PA have established industries but face operator resistance.

Legislative process is slow. Most states considering increases have not introduced specific bills. Even Illinois took multiple sessions. The 2026 calendar year timeline is tight. More likely we see proposals floated than enacted legislation.

Uncertainty is high because state politics are unpredictable. Budget pressures could accelerate timelines. But industry lobbying is strong and OSB revenue is still growing in most states, reducing pressure to increase rates. Low confidence given political uncertainty.

Illinois precedent exists but other states moving slowly. 2026 timeline tight for legislative action. Five states give multiple chances but none have introduced specific legislation.

Five major states provide breadth. State budget pressures are real. PA and OH are most likely. But operator lobbying and growth-phase industry dynamics work against increases.

Base rate for any of 5 states enacting increase in a given year is moderate. Industry is new enough that states prefer growth. Illinois was an outlier. Lean toward NO.