Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

DKNGActive

Will DKNG's FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceed $900M (top of guidance)?

Resolves March 15, 2027(230d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 23, 2026

Why This Question Matters

EBITDA trajectory is the ultimate test of whether the profitability inflection is durable. FY2025's guidance miss ($800-900M to $450-550M, actual $600M+) showed how volatile earnings are. If FY2026 EBITDA exceeds $900M guidance, it validates that the business model is capable of sustaining profitability growth. A miss would suggest FY2025's volatility is repeating.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 55%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

FY2026 EBITDA guidance of $700-900M already includes Predictions costs with zero revenue. CEO deliberately conservative. Parlay mix expansion is the primary EBITDA margin driver with multi-year runway. However, FY2025 showed $350-400M EBITDA swings from sports outcomes. Beating $900M top end requires both favorable operations AND neutral-to-favorable sports outcomes. The profitability trajectory is genuine but volatile.

Deliberately conservative guidanceParlay mix drives EBITDA marginsSports outcome variance creates $350-400M swings

opusRun 2

48%

The $900M top end is ambitious -- it represents 50% growth over FY2025 actual of $600M+. While guidance is sandbagged, the FY2025 experience showed the original $800-900M guidance was too aggressive and required a cut to $450-550M. The actual landing at $600M+ means $900M still requires $300M incremental, which demands both revenue growth and margin expansion without sports outcome headwinds.

$900M is 50% above FY2025 actualFY2025 original $800-900M proved too aggressive$300M incremental is substantial

opusRun 3

50%

Q4 2025 EBITDA was $343M at 17% margin. If maintained quarterly, annual would be ~$1.37B -- well above $900M. But Q4 included record NFL hold (16%) and seasonal peak. More realistic: if quarterly average is $225-250M, annual is $900M-1B. This requires margin sustaining near recent levels while revenue grows. Possible but not guaranteed given sports outcome volatility.

Q4 EBITDA run rate well above $900MSeasonal peak inflates Q4 -- not sustainable quarterlyNeed $225-250M quarterly average

sonnetRun 1

55%

The deliberately conservative framing gives management cover and incentive to beat. EBITDA guidance includes Predictions costs with zero revenue credit, creating built-in upside. Parlay mix expansion drives margin improvement. If sports outcomes are neutral, $900M+ appears achievable given the Q4 trajectory. The main risk is a repeat of FY2025 where customer-friendly outcomes compressed EBITDA.

Conservative framing with built-in upsidePredictions costs included with zero revenueParlay mix drives margin improvement

sonnetRun 2

45%

FY2025 taught the market that DKNG EBITDA is more volatile than revenue. A $350-400M swing is possible in either direction. The $900M top-end requires everything going right: handle growing, parlay mix expanding, sports outcomes neutral, no state tax increases, Predictions costs contained. This is a lot of conditions. More likely EBITDA lands in the $750-850M range.

EBITDA more volatile than revenueMultiple conditions must holdMost likely lands $750-850M mid-range

sonnetRun 3

50%

Genuine coin-flip. The deliberately conservative guidance creates upside potential, but the business model has demonstrated $350-400M EBITDA volatility. Low confidence because sports outcome variance makes this fundamentally unpredictable.

Conservative guidance creates upsideSports outcome variance unpredictableFundamental uncertainty

haikuRun 1

52%

Conservative guidance with Predictions costs included. Parlay mix drives margins. Q4 trajectory supports $900M+. But sports outcomes create binary risk. Slight lean toward YES.

Conservative guidanceParlay mix margin driverSports outcome risk

haikuRun 2

47%

FY2025 EBITDA miss showed vulnerability. $900M is the top end, not midpoint. Need favorable conditions. Slight lean toward NO.

FY2025 miss shows vulnerability$900M is top endNeed favorable conditions

haikuRun 3

50%

Near coin-flip. Conservative guidance provides buffer but sports outcome variance creates genuine unpredictability. Could go either way.

Conservative bufferSports outcome varianceGenuine unpredictability

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DraftKings reports full-year FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceeding $900M in the Q4 2026 earnings call or 10-K filing.

Resolution Source

Q4 2026 earnings call transcript or FY2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

FY2026 EBITDA guidance $700-900M includes Predictions costs with zero revenue credit. Beat-and-raise trajectory depends on parlay mix and Predictions performance.

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View DKNG Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis