DKNGActive

Will DKNG's FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceed $900M (top of guidance)?

Resolves March 15, 2027(355d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 23, 2026

Why This Question Matters

EBITDA trajectory is the ultimate test of whether the profitability inflection is durable. FY2025's guidance miss ($800-900M to $450-550M, actual $600M+) showed how volatile earnings are. If FY2026 EBITDA exceeds $900M guidance, it validates that the business model is capable of sustaining profitability growth. A miss would suggest FY2025's volatility is repeating.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 55%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

FY2026 EBITDA guidance of $700-900M already includes Predictions costs with zero revenue. CEO deliberately conservative. Parlay mix expansion is the primary EBITDA margin driver with multi-year runway. However, FY2025 showed $350-400M EBITDA swings from sports outcomes. Beating $900M top end requires both favorable operations AND neutral-to-favorable sports outcomes. The profitability trajectory is genuine but volatile.

Deliberately conservative guidanceParlay mix drives EBITDA marginsSports outcome variance creates $350-400M swings

opusRun 2

48%

The $900M top end is ambitious -- it represents 50% growth over FY2025 actual of $600M+. While guidance is sandbagged, the FY2025 experience showed the original $800-900M guidance was too aggressive and required a cut to $450-550M. The actual landing at $600M+ means $900M still requires $300M incremental, which demands both revenue growth and margin expansion without sports outcome headwinds.

$900M is 50% above FY2025 actualFY2025 original $800-900M proved too aggressive$300M incremental is substantial

opusRun 3

50%

Q4 2025 EBITDA was $343M at 17% margin. If maintained quarterly, annual would be ~$1.37B -- well above $900M. But Q4 included record NFL hold (16%) and seasonal peak. More realistic: if quarterly average is $225-250M, annual is $900M-1B. This requires margin sustaining near recent levels while revenue grows. Possible but not guaranteed given sports outcome volatility.

Q4 EBITDA run rate well above $900MSeasonal peak inflates Q4 -- not sustainable quarterlyNeed $225-250M quarterly average

sonnetRun 1

55%

The deliberately conservative framing gives management cover and incentive to beat. EBITDA guidance includes Predictions costs with zero revenue credit, creating built-in upside. Parlay mix expansion drives margin improvement. If sports outcomes are neutral, $900M+ appears achievable given the Q4 trajectory. The main risk is a repeat of FY2025 where customer-friendly outcomes compressed EBITDA.

Conservative framing with built-in upsidePredictions costs included with zero revenueParlay mix drives margin improvement

sonnetRun 2

45%

FY2025 taught the market that DKNG EBITDA is more volatile than revenue. A $350-400M swing is possible in either direction. The $900M top-end requires everything going right: handle growing, parlay mix expanding, sports outcomes neutral, no state tax increases, Predictions costs contained. This is a lot of conditions. More likely EBITDA lands in the $750-850M range.

EBITDA more volatile than revenueMultiple conditions must holdMost likely lands $750-850M mid-range

sonnetRun 3

50%

Genuine coin-flip. The deliberately conservative guidance creates upside potential, but the business model has demonstrated $350-400M EBITDA volatility. Low confidence because sports outcome variance makes this fundamentally unpredictable.

Conservative guidance creates upsideSports outcome variance unpredictableFundamental uncertainty

haikuRun 1

52%

Conservative guidance with Predictions costs included. Parlay mix drives margins. Q4 trajectory supports $900M+. But sports outcomes create binary risk. Slight lean toward YES.

Conservative guidanceParlay mix margin driverSports outcome risk

haikuRun 2

47%

FY2025 EBITDA miss showed vulnerability. $900M is the top end, not midpoint. Need favorable conditions. Slight lean toward NO.

FY2025 miss shows vulnerability$900M is top endNeed favorable conditions

haikuRun 3

50%

Near coin-flip. Conservative guidance provides buffer but sports outcome variance creates genuine unpredictability. Could go either way.

Conservative bufferSports outcome varianceGenuine unpredictability

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DraftKings reports full-year FY2026 adjusted EBITDA exceeding $900M in the Q4 2026 earnings call or 10-K filing.

Resolution Source

Q4 2026 earnings call transcript or FY2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

FY2026 EBITDA guidance $700-900M includes Predictions costs with zero revenue credit. Beat-and-raise trajectory depends on parlay mix and Predictions performance.

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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