DKNGActive

Will DKNG raise FY2026 revenue guidance above $6.9B by Q2 2026 earnings?

Resolves November 15, 2026(235d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

57%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 23, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The conservative guidance thesis is central to the bull case. CEO explicitly described forcing guidance lower multiple times. If management raises guidance above $6.9B by Q2 earnings, it validates the beat-and-raise narrative and suggests the 51% stock decline overcorrected. If guidance is maintained or cut, the pessimistic pricing may be justified.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 62%Aggregate: 57%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

62%

CEO explicitly forced guidance lower multiple times. FY2025 beat revised guidance significantly. Parlay mix drives revenue faster than handle growth. Q4 run rate implies annual well above $6.9B. Two quarters of evidence by Q2 earnings.

CEO forced guidance lowerParlay mix drives above-handle revenueTwo quarters evidence by Q2

opusRun 2

55%

Question asks about raising above $6.9B top end, not just beating. Management may raise to upper end initially. Handle deceleration constrains magnitude. CEO forward sale cap at $39.98 suggests moderate expectations.

Top-end threshold demands outperformanceHandle deceleration limits upsideTypical raise cadence is gradual

opusRun 3

58%

Deliberately conservative philosophy is strongest signal. FY2025 showed sports outcomes can prevent beats. Q4 was $2.0B suggesting annual pace well above $6.9B. Management may be cautious after credibility hit.

Conservative philosophy credibleQ4 $2.0B implies pace above $6.9BFY2025 credibility promotes caution

sonnetRun 1

60%

Management sandbagged guidance. Q4 alone was $2.0B -- flat sequential yields $8.0B annual. Question is whether they raise above $6.9B, likely if Q1 strong. If Q1 disappoints, may maintain range.

Q4 run rate well above rangeManagement cautious post-FY2025Q1 performance is key trigger

sonnetRun 2

52%

Two competing forces: guidance sandbagged vs FY2025 credibility damage promoting caution. Post-miss management often maintains conservative guidance longer. Q1 seasonal weakness may not justify aggressive raise.

Post-miss caution tendencyQ1 seasonal weaknessCredibility rebuilding takes time

sonnetRun 3

57%

By Q2 earnings, management has H1 actuals. If tracking ahead, raising above $6.9B is natural given conservative framing. Sandbagged starting point makes raise more likely than not.

H1 actuals provide clear signalSandbagged start provides roomSports outcomes could prevent raise

haikuRun 1

58%

CEO sandbagged guidance. Q4 run rate above guidance range. Parlay mix drives revenue faster than handle. Most likely management raises unless sports outcomes unfavorable.

Sandbagged guidanceQ4 run rate above rangeParlay mix drives above-handle growth

haikuRun 2

53%

While guidance is conservative, $6.9B top-end threshold is specific. Management may raise modestly. FY2025 credibility damage promotes caution.

Top-end threshold specificCredibility damage promotes cautionRaise may be modest

haikuRun 3

56%

Sandbagged guidance is strongest signal. Two quarters of data by Q2 should justify raise if tracking ahead. Sports variance is main risk.

Explicit sandbaggingTwo quarters of dataSports variance main risk

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DraftKings raises FY2026 revenue guidance above $6.9B at or before the Q2 2026 earnings call.

Resolution Source

Q1 or Q2 2026 earnings call transcript or 8-K filing

Source Trigger

Track whether management raises FY2026 guidance through the year. Raising validates the conservative-guidance thesis; maintaining or cutting would be bearish.

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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