Will DocuSign report 50,000 or more IAM customers by the end of FY2027 (January 2027)?

The linear math strongly favors YES: at 2,500/month from a base of 25,000, DocuSign would reach 62,500 by January 2027 even if the clock started at Q3 FY2026. However, S-curve deceleration is the central risk. Technology adoption among enterprise customers typically slows 30-50% after the initial early-adopter tranche (first 1-2% of total addressable base). With 25K representing just 1.4% of 1.8M customers, the early-adopter phase may be ending. Even with moderate deceleration to ~1,800/month, the company would reach ~52,000 — still clearing 50K. The Navigator data lock-in effect (150M+ agreements, 20M ingested in October alone up 140%) provides a structural pull mechanism that could sustain adoption beyond typical S-curve patterns. Management has strong narrative incentive to hit round-number milestones.

I weigh the Myth Meter's DIVERGING classification more heavily than the linear extrapolation. The committee found that IAM narrative emphasis exceeds demonstrated revenue contribution — only ~10-12% of revenue despite being the centerpiece of every earnings call. This pattern is consistent with companies that aggressively push customer counts through bundling, free trials, or low-commitment add-ons during the initial rollout, then see adoption stall once the easy wins are captured. The 150% growth from 10K to 25K in 6 months may reflect a concentrated sales push rather than organic demand. Key unknown: what is the conversion rate from eSignature-only to IAM? Without this, we can't distinguish genuine platform demand from sales-channel stuffing. However, management has massive reputational incentive to cross 50K given it's the central thesis variable — they will allocate resources to hit it. Slight edge to YES.

The most informative data point is the acceleration pattern: 20M agreements ingested into Navigator in October alone, up 140% over the prior 2 quarters. This suggests the data flywheel is strengthening, not weakening. If Navigator adoption continues accelerating, the pull-through to IAM customer conversion should be sustained. The committee's Moat Mapper identified this as 'moat under construction' — the more data ingested, the harder it is for customers to leave, and the more likely they are to adopt IAM capabilities built on that data. Against this, the 62% short-term contract base creates quarterly renewal risk and potential IAM adoption stalls if customers churn before converting. Net: the data flywheel signal outweighs the S-curve deceleration concern, but not overwhelmingly. The 15-month runway from October 2025 to January 2027 provides meaningful buffer even with some deceleration.

Simple math: 2,500 customers/month for 15 months = 37,500 new customers. Add to 25,000 base = 62,500. Even halving the rate to 1,250/month gives 43,750 — close but short. The question is whether deceleration is 0%, 30%, or 50%+. Three factors favor sustained pace: (1) Navigator data flywheel accelerating, (2) management incentive to hit IAM milestones for stock narrative, (3) new products like AgreementDesk and AI contract agents expanding the IAM value proposition. Against: only 1.4% penetration means remaining 98.6% may have lower propensity. I estimate ~35% deceleration to ~1,625/month, yielding ~49,375 — right at the boundary. Given management will push hard near a round-number milestone, slight edge to YES.

I'm anchoring on the Gravy Gauge's escalation trigger: IAM adoption flatline below 30,000 for 2+ quarters. The committee set 30K as the concern threshold, suggesting they believe deceleration is likely. If the committee of 5 lenses independently sees risk of stalling below 30K, reaching 50K is far from assured. The current 2,500/month rate was established during the initial launch phase with heavy sales incentives. Enterprise SaaS adoption typically shows 40-60% deceleration after the first 18-24 months. IAM launched June 2024 — by January 2027 that's 31 months, well into the deceleration window. At 40% deceleration (1,500/month), you'd reach ~47,500 — just short. At 50% deceleration (1,250/month), only ~43,750. The margin is thin and the risk skews toward missing.

The retention premium is underweighted in the deceleration analysis. Early IAM cohorts show gross retention 'several percentage points higher' than the corporate average. This means IAM customers are stickier — they're not just trying and churning. Combined with dollar-based net retention improving from 98% to 102% over 4 quarters (suggesting IAM is contributing to expansion), the adoption pattern appears genuine rather than trial-driven. The data staleness is actually a mild positive signal: we're ~4 months behind, meaning Q4 FY2026 results (through Jan 2026) likely already show whether the 2,500/month pace held. If it did, the base by January 2026 would be ~35,000, requiring only 15,000 more over the final 12 months (1,250/month — a 50% deceleration from original pace). This is quite achievable even with significant slowdown.

At 2,500/month growth rate with 15 months remaining, linear projection hits 62,500 — well above 50K. Even 50% deceleration yields ~43,750 which is short but close. The Navigator data flywheel (150M+ agreements, accelerating ingestion) and management incentive to hit IAM milestones favor crossing 50K. S-curve risk is real but the buffer from the strong initial pace provides margin. Slight edge YES.

The 50K target requires doubling the IAM customer base from 25K. Doubling in 15 months from a 1.4% penetration base means reaching 2.8% — still low in absolute terms but the remaining 98.6% of customers may have much lower IAM propensity. The Myth Meter's DIVERGING flag and the unresolved debate about narrative vs substance are concerning. If IAM adoption is partly driven by bundling and sales pushes rather than organic demand, deceleration could be sharp. Lean slightly NO.

This is genuinely a coin-flip market. The linear math says YES (62,500 projected), the S-curve says maybe not (43,750-50,000 range with moderate-to-heavy deceleration). The key unknown — conversion rate from eSignature-only to IAM — is not disclosed and prevents confident assessment. Data is 114 days stale. The outcome likely hinges on whether Q4 FY2026 showed sustained or decelerating IAM adoption, which we cannot observe. Near 50/50 with very slight edge to YES due to management incentive.