Will DocuSign disclose or indicate IAM revenue exceeding 15% of subscription revenue by FY2027 year-end?

IAM at ~11% of $3.14B subscription revenue implies ~$345M. FY2027 subscription likely ~$3.4B, so 15% requires ~$510M — roughly 48% IAM revenue growth in one year. IAM customer count doubled in 6 months (10K to 25K) suggesting rapid adoption, but revenue per IAM customer is unknown. Management provides only directional guidance ('low double-digit'), creating resolution ambiguity. Navigator's 150M+ agreements create monetization surface area, but token-based pricing is still being 'introduced.' The gap from 11% to 15% on a growing base is substantial for a product line launched only 18 months ago.

Taking the upper bound of the committee's range — IAM at 12% of $3.14B = ~$377M. If FY2027 subscription is $3.4B, 15% = $510M, requiring ~35% growth. More achievable than the 48% from the lower bound. The IAM customer base doubled in 6 months and platform pricing with tokens is being introduced. The reclassification factor is important: if CLM and other existing products are folded into IAM, the organic gap to 15% is smaller. Resolution criteria accept management's qualitative language — if management says 'mid-teens percentage' that resolves YES. Four earnings calls between now and April 2027 resolution provide multiple disclosure opportunities.

The resolution criteria are worth careful analysis. The question resolves YES if management 'states, discloses, or provides guidance indicating' 15%+, meaning even forward-looking guidance counts. Management's pattern has been to progressively update IAM metrics (first 'single-digit,' then 'low double-digit'). With four earnings calls between now and resolution (Q4 FY2026, Q1-Q3 FY2027), the probability of a qualifying disclosure accumulates. However, going from 'low double-digit' to 'mid-teens' requires a meaningful step-change. Navigator ingestion growth (20M agreements in October alone, up 140% over 2 quarters) supports acceleration, but beta products (AgreementDesk, AI contract agents) won't contribute material revenue within the timeframe.

IAM at ~11% needs to reach 15% on a growing subscription base. That requires roughly 40-50% IAM revenue growth in one year. IAM customer growth is strong (10K to 25K in 6 months) but revenue conversion per customer is uncertain. Management provides ranges not precise numbers. The question asks if IAM will grow significantly faster than the subscription base. IAM launched June 2024 and is still in early scaling — 40-50% growth is ambitious but consistent with early-stage enterprise SaaS adoption curves. However, 15% is a specific threshold and management may not cross it in language even if actual revenue approaches it.

Taking a more bearish view. 'Low double-digit' means 10-12% — that's management's own characterization. Management is unlikely to jump from 'low double-digit' to 'mid-teens' without a material step-change. AgreementDesk and AI contract agents are in beta, meaning they won't contribute material revenue until GA with enterprise adoption cycles (6-12 months). Token-based pricing is being 'introduced,' not generating material revenue. Given data staleness (Q3 FY2026), Q4 FY2026 may show marginal improvement to 12-13%, but 15% by FY2027 year-end requires sustained acceleration that current product maturity doesn't support. The Myth Meter's warning that narrative exceeds reality is relevant here.

The reclassification factor is an important path to YES. If CLM and other existing products are folded into IAM, the denominator grows faster than organic IAM alone. Revenue Revealer noted IAM revenue is 'unquantified at the product level' — this ambiguity cuts both ways. Additionally, management has incentive to frame IAM contribution generously as part of the platform pivot narrative. Central case is 13-14% by FY2027 year-end, with 15% as the optimistic tail. The resolution criteria's acceptance of qualitative language ('indicates') provides some additional path to YES if management uses language like 'approaching mid-teens.'

IAM at 10-12% needs to reach 15% on a growing subscription base. Customer growth doubled to 25K but revenue per customer is unknown. Navigator has 150M+ agreements — impressive data lock-in but monetization path unclear. FY2027 is one year out and the base is growing, making 15% a moving target. Achievable but not the most likely outcome. Central estimate is that IAM reaches 13-14% by FY2027.

Resolution depends heavily on disclosure practices. Management gives only directional guidance and may never quantify IAM precisely enough. Four earnings calls provide windows but management may stick with broad ranges. IAM momentum is real (25K customers, Navigator adoption) but 15% requires significant revenue acceleration beyond customer additions. Most likely outcome is 12-14% by FY2027 year-end.

IAM growth trajectory is strong based on customer additions and Navigator adoption. New products in pipeline could accelerate. But the Myth Meter warns narrative exceeds reality, and management's 'low double-digit' framing may already be optimistic. 15% threshold requires substantial revenue growth beyond customer adoption metrics. Below coin-flip but not a long-shot — IAM is the genuine growth vector for DocuSign.