Will DocuSign report Q4 FY2026 billings growth of 10% or higher year-over-year?

Management's cumulative $75M guidance raise pattern demonstrates systematic conservatism, and Q4 is seasonally the largest quarter. However, reaching 10% billings growth requires ~$1,011M versus guidance top-end of $1,002B — a $9M beat above the high end. The deceleration from Q2 +13% to Q3 +10% to Q4 guide +8% suggests management sees normalization, not sandbagging. IAM driving improved contract terms and DNR at 102% are positive, but billings timing noise (management's own words for transitioning to ARR) adds uncertainty. The 10% threshold is achievable but below the base case.

Management has good near-term billings visibility — contracts are largely signed or in pipeline by Q4. Their explicit +8% guidance falls well short of the 10% threshold. The ARR transition signals management believes billings is noisy — they wouldn't de-emphasize a metric that consistently outperforms. The Q2 +13% spike likely reflected timing of large deal renewals and multi-year contract restructuring that won't repeat. The deceleration from +13% to +10% to +8% guided is real, not just sandbagging. Q4 FY2025 comp at ~$919M is strong, making year-over-year growth harder.

The bull case rests on Q4 seasonal strength, IAM customers at 25K+ improving contract terms, and DNR at 102% (from 98%) suggesting expanding relationships. Management has beaten guidance every quarter in FY2026. But the math is challenging: 10% growth requires ~$1,011M, guidance midpoint is ~$997M, so a $14M beat above midpoint is needed. Revenue guidance beats have typically been 1-2pp; billings has more volatility but management explicitly guided below 10% despite knowing market expectations. If they expected 10%+, they could have guided higher. Probability sits below one-third.

Management guided +8%, explicitly below the 10% bar, and they have better near-term billings visibility than any external model. The deceleration trend is unambiguous: +13% to +10% to +8% guided. Management knows billings are being watched closely and still guided +8% — this is not a case where they're hiding 2pp of upside. Revenue guidance beats have been solid but billings guidance is a different beast with more timing noise. The committee's finding that Q2's +13% spike may have been anomalous is supported by the Q3 and Q4 trajectory.

The billings trajectory tells a clear normalization story. Q2's +13% was the peak driven by timing of large deal renewals and contract restructuring. Q3 pulled back to +10%, and Q4 guidance at +8% continues the downtrend. Reaching 10% requires reversing the deceleration trend without an identified catalyst. The DNR improvement and IAM expansion are already reflected in the +8% guidance. Management's transition from billings to ARR reporting is itself a signal they don't see billings as the best performance indicator — possibly because it won't consistently show strength.

There is a plausible path to 10%: Q4 seasonal strength as the largest quarter, IAM adoption accelerating contract values, and management's cumulative $75M guidance raise pattern showing systematic conservatism. But the gap is significant — +8% guided vs +10% threshold requires a 2pp billings beat, and management has better near-term billings visibility than revenue visibility (billings reflect actual invoicing). The Myth Meter's finding that management may use billings beats to reinforce 'reacceleration' framing suggests they'd WANT to beat 10% if possible — the fact they guided below suggests they can't.

Guidance says +8%, need +10%. Management guides conservatively (raised $75M cumulative) but a 2pp billings beat above guidance top-end is a stretch. The deceleration from Q2 +13% to Q3 +10% to Q4 guide +8% is clear. Q4 is seasonally strong but the comp is tough. Below one-third probability.

Billings is noisy by management's own admission — they're transitioning to ARR specifically because of timing noise. The +8% guidance with consistent conservatism pattern could stretch to +9%, but reaching +10% requires the conservatism pattern to be at its most extreme for Q4 specifically. Strong Q4 FY2025 comp at ~$919M works against it. More likely to land around +8-9% than reach +10%.

Management's conservatism is real — they raised guidance $75M cumulatively through FY2026. But +8% billings guidance for Q4 specifically is 2pp short of the 10% threshold. IAM customer growth to 25K+ and DNR at 102% support improving demand conditions, but these tailwinds are already captured in the +8% guidance. The committee's unresolved debate about whether billings acceleration is structural or noise leans toward noise given Q4 guidance.