Will DocuSign report dollar-based net retention (DNR) at or above 103% in Q4 FY2026?

DNR plateaued at 102% for two consecutive quarters with a clear deceleration pattern (+3pp, +1pp, +0pp). Reaching 103% requires breaking this plateau — a re-acceleration after the improvement rate flatlined. Q4 is the seasonally largest quarter which could introduce enterprise renewal dynamics, and IAM early cohorts show better retention, but IAM is only 10-12% of subscription revenue — the mix effect is likely insufficient to move the blended metric by a full percentage point in one quarter. Billings growth at +10% in Q3 is decent but not accelerating. The probability of breaking through to 103% after two quarters of stalling is materially below 50%.

Q4 FY2026 is DocuSign's seasonally largest quarter, and enterprise renewals concentrated in Q4 could produce different dynamics than the Q2-Q3 plateau. The $300K+ customer count is steadily growing (1,123 to 1,165). If these larger customers are disproportionately adopting IAM, the expansion rate in Q4 renewals could be higher. However, the mathematical challenge is real — DNR needs to jump from 102% to 103% after stalling for two quarters. The committee's unresolved debate about whether improvement is structural vs temporary weighs against, and without gross retention data we cannot confirm underlying churn trends.

The 102% plateau could reflect measurement lag if IAM adoption is accelerating, but the deceleration pattern (+3, +1, 0) is the strongest signal. The billings growth pattern shows volatility (+4%, +13%, +10%) without clear acceleration. CEO commentary about transitioning to ARR reporting at Q4 may signal the company is moving away from DNR precisely because improvement is stalling. The base rate for a metric that plateaued for 2 quarters then breaking through the next quarter is not high. Gross retention opacity prevents confirming whether expansion improvement is genuine or masking churn deterioration.

DNR has plateaued at 102% for two straight quarters. The improvement trajectory is +3, +1, 0 — clear deceleration to a stall. Reaching 103% requires re-acceleration, which is asking for something the trend does not support. IAM is 10-12% of subscription revenue, not enough mix to move a company-level retention metric by a full percentage point. Enterprise billings growth is decelerating. The transition to ARR reporting at Q4 is a red flag — companies often transition away from metrics that are about to look worse.

The most likely candidate for reaching 103% is IAM-driven expansion, but at 10-12% revenue mix the blended effect is modest — perhaps 0.2-0.4pp uplift at most even if IAM cohorts show several percentage points better retention. Q4 seasonality could help as more large enterprise renewals come up, and the $300K+ customer growth is real. But the two-quarter plateau is the dominant signal. The committee's unresolved debate on structural vs temporary improvement is the key uncertainty, and the plateau data point favors the temporary hypothesis.

The improvement rate went from +3 to +1 to +0 over three quarters — textbook deceleration to a plateau. Asking whether DNR will be +1 after two zeros is asking whether a decelerated trend will re-accelerate, which is possible but unlikely without a clear new catalyst. The committee's debate about structural vs temporary improvement is correctly framed, and the plateau evidence strengthens the temporary hypothesis. IAM mix is too small to move the needle yet, and 62% of contracts being one year or less means the renewal base turns over rapidly — if expansion isn't accelerating across the broad base, DNR stays flat.

DNR plateaued at 102% for two quarters after decelerating improvement (+3, +1, 0). Getting to 103% requires breaking a clear stall. IAM at 10-12% mix is too small to move the blended metric. Q4 seasonal enterprise renewals could help marginally but the trend favors continuation at 102% or below.

Two quarters of 102% after clear deceleration from +3pp gains to zero. Q4 seasonal effects could introduce volatility but the dominant trend is flat. ARR metric transition at Q4 suggests company anticipates DNR will not impress. Gross retention unknown, adding uncertainty about underlying dynamics.

The deceleration pattern (+3, +1, 0) strongly suggests 102% or below for Q4. IAM is not yet at sufficient scale to drive a company-level metric improvement. Enterprise renewals in Q4 could provide modest uplift but likely not enough for a full percentage point improvement from the current plateau.