Will DocuSign guide FY2027 revenue growth at or above 10% at the Q4 FY2026 earnings call?

Revenue growth has stabilized at ~8% for 2 consecutive fiscal years. Management's FY2026 initial guidance was +5%, raised to +8% — initial guide was 3pp below eventual actual. If the same pattern holds, initial guidance of 10%+ would imply management believes they can deliver 13%+, a dramatic acceleration unsupported by the data. Billings growth of 10-13% is the strongest positive signal, but the committee found 'stabilization, not reacceleration, is the more parsimonious explanation' at HIGH confidence with 2/2 agreement. Insider selling of $12.6M with zero purchases is inconsistent with a genuine inflection.

Even if management expects FY2027 to deliver 10%+ growth, their established pattern is to guide 3pp below reality. That implies they'd guide ~7-8% initially even if expecting 10-11%. The only scenario for 10%+ initial guidance is if ARR disclosure shows strong enough trajectory to justify a bold reset, but the resolution criteria measures revenue guidance specifically. The committee's narrative gap assessment directly addresses management's tendency to overstate growth direction — guidance at 10%+ would either continue this pattern or break the sandbagging pattern, both of which are unlikely in combination.

Billings-to-revenue conversion lag means Q2's 13% billings growth could flow through to FY2027 revenue. IAM platform (25,000+ customers, low double-digit recurring revenue percentage) represents a genuine growth vector. If Q4 results are strong AND management uses the ARR metric introduction as a 'new chapter' moment, they could set aggressive FY2027 guidance. However, the committee flagged that management's overstating track record creates credibility uncertainty. The conservative initial guidance pattern (+5% to +8% for FY2026) makes a jump to 10%+ initial guidance unprecedented in recent history. Billings above 10% provides more support than the base case suggests.

Management has a clear conservative initial guidance pattern: FY2026 started at +5%, ended at +8%. For 10%+ initial guidance, management would need to break this pattern and guide 2pp above current delivery rate. The committee found NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP = DIVERGING — management overstates in narrative framing but guidance has been conservative. Initial guidance at 10%+ requires a 2pp jump from current 8% delivery, which is the opposite of their sandbagging pattern. The ARR metric transition creates noise but resolution criteria is revenue guidance specifically.

Billings growth trajectory (+4% to +13% to +10%) is the best argument for 10%+ guidance. Revenue typically follows billings with 2-4 quarter lag, so Q2-Q3 FY2026 billings would flow through to mid-FY2027. If management sees strong Q4 billings execution, they might have internal visibility to 10%+ revenue growth. But the committee found billings acceleration 'has not yet translated to revenue acceleration above 8%.' Management consistently starts guidance low. Even if FY2027 will deliver 10%+, initial guidance would more likely be 8-9% with room to raise. Insider selling of $12.6M with $0 purchases doesn't suggest insiders expect a major narrative shift.

Revenue growth has been stuck at 7-8% for two years despite management claiming reacceleration. Committee assessment is DIVERGING at HIGH confidence. For 10%+ initial guidance, management needs to either genuinely believe in acceleration they haven't demonstrated, or set an aggressive guide they might miss. The conservative initial guidance pattern and the gap between narrative and delivery both argue against 10%+. Most likely scenario: initial FY2027 guidance of 8-9% (matching current trajectory) with potential to raise if IAM momentum continues.

FY2026 initial guide was +5%, actual will be +8% — a 3pp gap between initial guide and reality. If FY2027 reality is 10%+, initial guide would still likely be 7-8% following this pattern. Billings growth at 10-13% is positive but hasn't translated to revenue above 8% yet. Committee says DIVERGING narrative gap at HIGH confidence.

Two strong patterns both point NO: (1) management guides conservatively with FY2026 starting at +5%, and (2) revenue growth has been flat at 7-8% for 2 years. Both argue against 10%+ initial guidance. Even if billings acceleration eventually translates to revenue growth, the initial guide will be below that. Zero insider purchases across all insiders confirms no imminent inflection expected.

Key question is about initial guidance behavior, not actual results. Management's conservative initial guidance pattern (FY2026: +5% initial vs +8% actual) strongly suggests FY2027 initial guidance will follow the same approach. Billings acceleration provides some upside optionality but the question is about initial guidance, not eventual results. The ARR metric transition could muddy comparisons but resolution criteria is revenue guidance specifically.