Will EQPT report ABL Credit Facility net excess availability below $500M at any quarterly reporting date in 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
ABL net excess availability was $1,039M at 12/31/2025 against a cash dominion trigger at 10% / $175M floor. Below $500M would signal that operating cash flow has materially deteriorated or capex draws are accelerating. Tests FUNDING_FRAGILITY directly. A trip below $500M is the inflection where strategic flexibility compresses.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Starting buffer $1,039M. To breach $500M requires $539M decline in 12 months. Recent ABL refinance (11/26/2025) reflects lender confidence. Sale-leaseback revenue $1,296M provides alt cash generation. Mid-cycle rental companies rarely breach 50% buffer decline without macro shock. ~18%.
Borrowing base shrinkage scenario requires fleet OEC compression. EQPT's own equipment OEC growing +24% YoY supports growing borrowing base. ABL draws are typically a function of working capital + capex; OWN Program absorbs much of capex demand. Multiple offsetting forces tilt toward NO. ~16%.
Construction cycle moderating could compress fleet utilization → ABL draws to fund WC + tax outflows; if 8% notes refi (due 2033 but spread risk earlier) requires bridge, could draw on ABL. Tail risk modestly above baseline. ~20%.
ABL availability declining 50%+ within 12 months base rate ~10-15% for mid-cycle industrials with stable collateral. EQPT first-year IPO + complex capital structure adds modest premium. ~18%.
Mgmt narrative incentive strong (first-year-public optics). $1,039M buffer is large. Cash dominion trigger at $275M means there's ~$540M between threshold and trigger — operational warning system would activate before breach. ~17%.
Quarterly disclosure cadence creates 4 sequential opportunities; any one quarter's fleet inventory swing or working capital build could trigger. Cumulative probability slightly above 'any-time' single-event probability. ~19%.
Base rate ~10-15% + first-year premium = ~18%. ~18%.
Buffer large, narrative pressure to maintain, recent refinance signal. ~17%.
Quarterly cadence + cycle moderation tail. ~19%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if EQPT's disclosed ABL Credit Facility net excess availability (or 'borrowing availability', or equivalent disclosed figure tied to the senior secured ABL revolving credit facility) is reported below $500.0M as of any quarter-end during fiscal year 2026 (Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 2026 reporting dates) in the corresponding 10-Q or 10-K filing. Resolves NO if all four quarter-end disclosures during 2026 report net excess availability at or above $500.0M.
Resolution Source
EQPT 10-Q filings (Q1, Q2, Q3 2026) and FY 2026 10-K
Source Trigger
Net excess availability under ABL Credit Facility — $1,039M at 12/31/2025. Cash dominion trigger at 10% of capacity ($275M) or $175M floor. Threshold: <$500M would compress strategic flexibility.
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