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Will either Schlacks brother (Jabbok or William) disclose an open-market sale of EQPT stock outside RSU/PSU vesting mechanics before December 31, 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Insider Investigator flagged the IPO-day mechanical 7.26M-share founder dispositions as difficult to interpret without lock-up context, and noted that the 'next 6-12 months establish the pattern.' An open-market sale by either Schlacks brother (outside RSU/PSU mechanics) would meaningfully shift the GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT signal toward UNCONSTRUCTIVE. NO is the consensus expectation given dual-class entrenchment + PSU price hurdles.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Twin-founder structure gives ~35-50% combined baseline. Adjustments: (-10pp) PSU price-hurdle alignment, (-7pp) zero post-IPO discretionary selling baseline, (+5pp) lock-up expires July 2026, (-5pp) first-year discount makes selling at depressed price suboptimal. Net ~14%.
Founders are operationally engaged (CEO + Co-Founder); high-conviction holders by nature. Stock 6% below IPO — selling at depressed price tax-inefficient. Estate planning vehicles already in place via EQS Heritage/Legacy Holdings; major rebalancing not required. Lower than mid baseline. ~12%.
Lock-up expiration July 2026 opens 5-month window for first discretionary sales. Twin founders mean either trigger; even unlikely individual probability ~7-9% per founder gives combined ~14-17%. Diversification need post-illiquid period is real. ~16%.
Twin-founder + PSU alignment + zero behavioral baseline + first-year discount = mid teens. ~14%.
$1M threshold filters out routine vesting tax-withholding (which is excluded anyway). Discretionary sales above $1M require deliberate intent — not consistent with founder behavioral baseline since IPO. ~13%.
Newly public founders sometimes adopt 10b5-1 plans for diversification post-lock-up. If adopted post-April 25, would qualify as YES. Probability of 10b5-1 adoption within 8 months is moderate (~10-15%). ~15%.
Mid teens after PSU alignment + behavioral baseline adjustments. ~14%.
Operational engagement + first-year discount + estate vehicles in place. Lower end. ~13%.
Lock-up window creates upside; twin-founder doubles individual probability. ~15%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if either Jabbok Schlacks or William Schlacks files a Form 4 disclosing a sale (transaction code S or other open-market disposition) of EQPT common stock (Class A) totaling $1M or more in proceeds, where the sale is NOT explicitly tied to RSU vesting tax-withholding, PSU vesting tax-withholding, Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted prior to April 25, 2026, charitable gift, or required IPO-related secondary participation explicitly disclosed in the S-1 or Form 4 footnotes. Resolves NO otherwise. Threshold of $1M selected to filter routine vesting tax-withholding from material economic exits.
Resolution Source
SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings
Source Trigger
Founder Form 4 activity outside RSU/PSU grants. Open-market sales by Schlacks brothers would meaningfully change the governance signal. The IPO-day mechanical transactions are not a baseline; the next 6-12 months establish the pattern.
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