EQPTActive

Will EQPT stock close above $30.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(249d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

32%

Likely No

Model Agreement91%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests the upside catalyst path. $30 = ~30% above $22.99 close, implying T3 platform value gets re-rated, OWN Program scales cleanly, Q1/Q2 2026 earnings demonstrate operating leverage. URI/Sunbelt comparable trade at premium multiples; if EQPT closes the first-year discount, $30 is achievable. NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP closure scenario.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 30% – 34%Aggregate: 32%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

32%

$22.99 → $30 = 30.5% upside in 8 months. Newly-public small-mid cap base rate 30%+ over 8 months: ~30-40%. EQPT specifics: clean Q1 10-Q (78% prob) + sector tailwinds + PSU price-hurdle alignment supportive but offset by 6.8% op margin / 0.9% net margin / 96% interest-expense leverage. Anchor at low end of base rate range. ~32%.

30.5% required upsideBase rate 30-40%Margin compression riskQ1 10-Q catalyst

opusRun 2

30%

Equity at $22.99 reflects market view that first-year discount is real. T3 platform value not currently being re-rated; URI/Sunbelt premium multiples are not anchoring EQPT's multiple yet. Catalyst path requires (1) Q1 10-Q clean, (2) OWN economics stable, (3) operating leverage visible — three independent events all needed. Conditional probability product ~30%. ~30%.

Compound catalyst pathT3 not anchoring multipleThree independent events required

opusRun 3

34%

Founder PSU price-hurdle alignment (18.3M each, calibration not disclosed) creates a structural upside-attraction force. Even if 2026 doesn't fully close the discount, $30 is a plausible PSU hurdle level (near 1.2x IPO price). Hurdle-driven price defense provides modest upside support. ~34%.

PSU hurdle force1.2x IPO plausible hurdleHurdle-driven defense

sonnetRun 1

31%

8-month window for 30%+ on small-mid cap with active narrative catalysts: ~30-40%. EQPT first-year discount overhang reduces by ~5-8pp. ~31%.

Window probabilityFirst-year discount drag

sonnetRun 2

33%

Catalyst path: clean Q1 10-Q + decent Q1 operating numbers + sector tailwinds + PSU support + URI sympathy. Each 50-70%. Compound product gets to mid-30s. Slight discount for first-year overhang. ~33%.

Compound catalyst probabilitiesURI sympathyFirst-year overhang discount

sonnetRun 3

30%

Net margin 0.9% means small operating misses compress equity disproportionately on the downside; reverse is also true on upside. With construction cycle moderating, large 30%+ upside breakouts are less likely than mid-cycle expansions. ~30%.

Operating leverage symmetryCycle moderationLess likely breakouts

haikuRun 1

32%

8-month 30%+ probability ~30-40% for small-mid cap newly-public; EQPT in middle of range with Q1 catalyst. ~32%.

Range middleQ1 catalyst

haikuRun 2

33%

Sector tailwinds + PSU alignment + Q1 catalyst combine into modest upside lean above base rate. ~33%.

Sector tailwindsPSU alignment

haikuRun 3

31%

First-year discount + thin margins + cycle moderation cap upside. ~31%.

First-year discountThin marginsCycle

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if EQPT common stock (NYSE:EQPT) closing price exceeds $30.00 on any trading day from April 25, 2026 through December 31, 2026 inclusive. Resolves NO if the closing price never reaches $30.00 in that window. Resolution based on official NYSE closing price; intraday highs do not count.

Resolution Source

NYSE official closing price

Source Trigger

First-year IPO discount close: stock re-rates toward URI/Sunbelt comparables as T3 platform value, OWN Program scale, and operating leverage convince public investors.

moat-mapperNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPMEDIUM

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