EQPTActive

Will EQPT stock close below $18.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(249d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement91%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests the left tail. $18 = ~22% downside. Triggers Black Swan Beacon compound scenarios (Construction recession + ABS freeze 10-15%, OEM competitive pivot 10-15%). Below $18 means refinancing math gets harder (interest expense already 96% of op income), and the 8% notes due 2033 could repress at higher coupons. Insider PSU hurdle alignment also stresses (founder PSUs tied to price hurdles — disclosure gap on calibration).

TAIL_RISK_SEVERITYFUNDING_FRAGILITYGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 32%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

30%

Black Swan Beacon compound scenarios sum to ~25-30% probability of equity loss >40% over 24 months. Pro-rated to 8-month window: ~12-15%. Adding non-tail sources of -22% drawdowns (sector sympathy, sentiment compression, Q1 disappointment): ~10-15%. Combined ~25-30%. ~30%.

Tail compound 12-15% in 8moNon-tail drawdown 10-15%Combined 25-30%

opusRun 2

28%

$18 = 21.7% below current. Newly-public small-mid cap base rate for 22% drawdown over 8 months: ~25-35%. EQPT specifics: PSU price-hurdle alignment provides upside force; sector tailwinds offset macro fragility; recent ABL refinance signals lender confidence. Anchor at low-mid range. ~28%.

Base rate 25-35%PSU alignment upside forceSector tailwinds offsetABL refinance confidence

opusRun 3

32%

Operating margin 6.8% / net margin 0.9% means very small operating misses compress equity disproportionately. 96% interest-expense / op-income ratio amplifies sensitivity. The narrow operating cushion increases drawdown probability above seasoned-peer baseline. ~32%.

Margin compression amplification96% interest leverageAbove seasoned peer baseline

sonnetRun 1

30%

P10 8-month drawdown for newly-public small-mid cap with first-year overhang: ~25-30%. Tail scenarios contribute additional ~3-5pp probability over baseline. ~30%.

P10 drawdown rangeTail contribution

sonnetRun 2

31%

Multiple low-probability events could individually trigger close-below-$18: Q1 material weakness (3-5%), sale-leaseback restatement (3-7%), construction recession + ABS freeze (10-15%), OEM competitive pivot (10-15%), founder open-market sale shock (5-10%). Independent or partial overlap; aggregate to ~30%. ~31%.

Multiple low-prob triggersAggregate ~30%Partial overlap

sonnetRun 3

29%

Stock already 6% below IPO; some first-year overhang already priced. Marginal trigger to extend to -22% requires meaningful additional event. Sector tailwinds (infrastructure, energy capex) provide floor. ~29%.

Some first-year pricedNeed meaningful triggerSector floor

haikuRun 1

30%

P10-P15 drawdown range. Tail scenarios add 3-5pp. ~30%.

P10-P15 rangeTail add

haikuRun 2

32%

Margin thinness + interest leverage amplify drawdowns. Above seasoned baseline. ~32%.

Margin thinnessInterest leverage

haikuRun 3

28%

Sector tailwinds + PSU alignment + ABL confidence support floor. ~28%.

Sector floorPSU supportABL confidence

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if EQPT common stock (NYSE:EQPT) closing price falls below $18.00 on any trading day from April 25, 2026 through December 31, 2026 inclusive. Resolves NO if the closing price never closes below $18.00 in that window. Resolution based on official NYSE closing price; intraday lows do not count.

Resolution Source

NYSE official closing price

Source Trigger

Construction recession + ABS market freeze; OEM competitive pivot; first-year financial reporting issue. Compound tail scenarios identified by Black Swan Beacon (10-15% standalone probabilities each).

black-swan-beaconTAIL_RISK_SEVERITYMEDIUM

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