EQPTActive

Will EQPT report full-year 2026 net rental capital expenditures below $500M?

Resolves March 15, 2027(323d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement89%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Net rental capex was $620M in FY 2025 (up 136% YoY). A material moderation below $500M would signal CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT shifts from AGGRESSIVE toward DISCIPLINED — branch openings stabilize, 85 new branches from 2025 mature into stabilized utilization, and capex / OCF gap closes. Above $500M (or higher) sustains the growth-at-all-costs pattern that depends on continued debt market access.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 32%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

30%

FY 2025 net rental capex $620M. Threshold $500M = 19% reduction. Mid-cycle expansion-phase rental companies probability of -20%+ capex YoY: ~30-45%. EQPT specific drivers up: (1) OWN Program substitution, (2) mgmt narrative for capex/OCF gap closure. Drivers down: (1) branch network scaling continues, (2) T3 fleet density growth, (3) sector tailwinds. Mid-band. ~30%.

Base rate 30-45%OWN substitutionBranch scaling continues

opusRun 2

28%

Branch openings cadence: 85 in 2025, 162 in 2 years prior. Pattern suggests 60-100 new branches in 2026 — maintains gross capex elevated. Used equipment proceeds dependent on residual values; if values stable, proceeds can rise to compress net capex but unlikely to drop net below $500M. ~28%.

Branch cadence patternResidual stability scenarioNet capex floor

opusRun 3

32%

OWN Program scaled fleet from $6.6B → $8.8B without proportional EQPT-owned capex. If 2026 sees continued OWN absorption (capital-light substitution accelerates), net capex could moderate dramatically. The $620M figure was up 136% YoY — single-year acceleration is consistent with pre-IPO buildout that may not repeat. ~32%.

OWN absorptionPre-IPO buildoutAcceleration may not repeat

sonnetRun 1

30%

Mid-cycle rental capex moderation probability ~30-45%. Newly public companies face dual pressure: continue growing for narrative + manage capex for cash optic. Net effect: moderate moderation likely but $500M is meaningful threshold. ~30%.

Mid-cycle rangeDual narrative pressureThreshold meaningful

sonnetRun 2

32%

Construction cycle softening (some prints) reduces utilization stress on fleet → lower capex demand. Mgmt incentive to demonstrate operating leverage from 2025 branch class. ~32%.

Cycle softeningOperating leverage demo

sonnetRun 3

29%

Sustained $500M+ net rental capex base rate for newly-public industrials in expansion: ~60-70%. EQPT has explicit growth narrative — branch additions, T3 density. Probability of moderation below threshold ~30%. ~29%.

Sustained base rate 60-70%Growth narrative explicit

haikuRun 1

30%

30-45% base rate for capex moderation; growth narrative drag. ~30%.

Base rateGrowth drag

haikuRun 2

31%

OWN absorption scenario boosts probability; cycle softening helps. ~31%.

OWN absorptionCycle softening

haikuRun 3

29%

Branch cadence + sustained scaling tilt below 50/50. ~29%.

Branch cadenceSustained scaling

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if EQPT's reported FY 2026 net rental capital expenditures (rental equipment purchases less proceeds from rental equipment sales, as disclosed in the 10-K cash flow statement or MD&A) are below $500.0M. Resolves NO if at or above $500.0M. If EQPT reclassifies the disclosure, resolution defaults to gross rental equipment purchases minus proceeds from rental equipment sales as separately disclosed in the cash flow statement.

Resolution Source

EQPT FY 2026 10-K cash flow statement

Source Trigger

Branch openings vs same-branch productivity. 85 branches added in 2025 ($252M startup costs). When branch growth decelerates, are same-store comps maintaining? Net rental capex moderation = CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT shifts from AGGRESSIVE.

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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