Will EQPT's full-year 2026 OWN Program payouts exceed 35% of equipment rental and related services revenue?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Most explicit monitoring trigger from meta-synthesis. OWN Program payouts at 29% of rental revenue in FY 2025 ($714M / $2,437M) growing 70% YoY vs revenue +16% indicates margin compression on the OWN portion. Threshold above 35% = REVENUE_DURABILITY shifts toward FRAGILE on the equipment-sales segment and UNIT_ECONOMICS escalates. Tests whether OWN program is cleanly absorbing fleet growth or whether participant economics are eroding.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
FY 2025: 29.3%. Trajectory if 70% growth continues = 36-39% (BREACH). Mean reversion = 30-32% (CLEAR). Probability mass split: continued acceleration ~40%, mean reversion ~50%, deceleration ~10%. Acceleration scenario alone yields P(BREACH) ~40%. With small contribution from compound stress paths. ~42%.
$714M starting payouts. If +50% growth (mid scenario): $1,071M. Rental rev +25%: $3,046M. Ratio = 35.2%. Sits right at threshold. Below threshold scenarios (mean reversion to 30-32%) have meaningful probability mass. ~40%.
Structural factors favoring continued ratio expansion: (1) OWN Program is core growth lever, (2) ABS conditions support participant economics share rather than retention, (3) construction-cycle softening would compress numerator and denominator differently. Skew slightly bullish on YES. Mgmt narrative protection is real but limited tool. ~45%.
29.3% → 35% requires ~6pp expansion in one year. FY 2024→2025 expansion was ~6.7pp. So another single-year jump of similar magnitude is plausible but not base case. Mean reversion is more likely. ~40%.
Disclosure ambiguity risk: if EQPT reclassifies disclosure, default tilt is NO. Actual ratio in non-ambiguous case is ~50/50 around threshold. Adjusting for ambiguity tilt-down. ~43%.
Construction equipment cycle moderating; OWN Program transactions could be lumpy in 2026. If FY 2025 had unusually large episodic transactions, mean reversion is more probable. Mgmt narrative protection mid-cycle. ~41%.
29.3% → 35% threshold near central case if growth normalizes. Continued acceleration scenario ~40%. ~42%.
Trajectory + ABS conditions + structural growth lever. Modestly above coin-flip but capped by mgmt and mean-reversion forces. ~44%.
Mean reversion bias + mgmt incentive to manage ratio + cycle softening. ~40%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if EQPT's reported full-year 2026 OWN Program payouts (or 'amounts paid to OWN Program participants', or equivalent disclosed figure tied to OWN Program revenue-share/payouts in the FY 2026 10-K) divided by full-year 2026 equipment rental and related services revenue is greater than 35.0%. Resolves NO if at or below 35.0%. If EQPT reclassifies disclosure such that direct comparison is impossible, resolves based on best comparable line item per analyst reasonable judgment, with default tilt toward NO if classification is ambiguous.
Resolution Source
EQPT FY 2026 10-K filing
Source Trigger
Quarterly OWN Program payouts as % of rental revenue. Currently 29% in FY 2025 ($714M / $2,437M). Rising trend = margin compression on the OWN portion. Threshold: >35%.
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