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Will FITB's full-year 2026 NII come in below the $8.6B guidance floor?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
FY 2026 NII guide floor raised to $8.7B (from $8.6B). Q1 NII $1.94B above March expectations; Q2 guide $2.20-$2.25B with +3-5bps NIM expansion. PAA accretion measured at only 2bps at close (vs. baseline's 8-10bps assumption). CFO flagged fewer-than-expected Fed cuts as favorable for NII ex-Markets. Probability of missing $8.6B floor materially reduced.
Why This Question Matters
NII is the largest revenue line and the most rate-sensitive. The $8.6-8.8B guidance assumes the forward curve with 25bp cuts in March and July. The 80% floating-rate C&I portfolio post-merger creates asymmetric downside from aggressive rate cuts. Missing the floor would confirm the CONDITIONAL revenue durability assessment and test whether the purchase accounting accretion provides sufficient cushion.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
FY NII guide floor raised to $8.7B; Q1 $1.94B annualizes to $7.76B but includes only two months of combined entity. Q2 guide $2.20-$2.25B implies quarterly run-rate accelerates and full-year clears $8.7B comfortably unless a material rate event. Going below $8.6B requires 2+ meaningful Fed cuts + weaker loan growth + no fee offset — a significant combination.
Baseline 0.24 priced rate-path asymmetry plus untested combined book. Q1 resolves both favorably: raised guide, NIM bridge transparent, fewer cuts favorable. Residual tail risk from aggressive rate cuts or Texas deposit ramp undershoot remains, but base case is clearing the $8.6B threshold.
Mechanical math: Q1 $1.94B + Q2 midpoint $2.225B = $4.17B through H1. To miss $8.6B for the year requires H2 at $4.43B (effectively $2.215B/quarter average), only marginally below the Q2 guide. Going below this would require NIM compression in H2 from a rate-cut scenario that CFO already flagged as less likely than assumed.
Management raised the floor of guide, Q1 tracking above internal expectations. Probability of missing $8.6B materially lower than baseline 0.24.
Rate path remains a tail risk. If Fed cuts 4+ times in H2 2026, floating C&I book compresses NIM faster than deposit costs decline. However, current market pricing and CFO commentary both favor fewer cuts. Tail risk still non-trivial.
Q1 execution + raised guide + management tone calibration all support clearing $8.6B. Probability materially lower than baseline.
FY guide raised; Q1 tracking above plan. Low probability of missing $8.6B.
Rate cut tail risk remains but central scenario clears the threshold.
Empirical Q1 data + raised guide = materially lower probability than baseline.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if FITB's reported full-year 2026 net interest income (as disclosed in the Q4 2026 earnings release or 10-K) is below $8.6 billion.
Resolution Source
FITB Q4 2026 earnings release or FY2026 10-K
Source Trigger
Record NII is rate-dependent and merger-amplified — rate cuts compress NIM on 80% floating C&I
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