Will FITB's Comerica systems conversion be delayed beyond October 2026?

First full mock conversion complete without disclosed surprises. Management reaffirmed Labor Day weekend target. Technology risk explicitly called out but delay beyond October would require a mock or rehearsal failure that is not in the public disclosure. Bank systems conversions typically run on-schedule when the mock phase completes cleanly.

Baseline 0.12 reflected pre-mock uncertainty. Post-Q1 mock success removes one layer of risk. Remaining risk: actual conversion weekend surprise, Comerica regulatory oversight flag, or customer-impact event. Management's 'single largest point of risk' framing suggests proactive risk management rather than actual concern.

Comerica merger closed Feb 1 (ahead of schedule), first mock complete on schedule, leadership aligned, 46 apps locked. Each of these is a discrete milestone that could have delayed conversion but did not. Probability of delay beyond October requires 3+ months of slippage from Labor Day — that would need a near-failure event.

Q1 mock conversion success is the best leading indicator. Labor Day → October is a ~4-week cushion. Delay beyond October implies material issue requiring additional mock cycle.

Large bank integrations do occasionally slip. Even with mock success, unforeseen integration issues during actual cutover can force a delay. Residual tail risk at roughly baseline Q4'25 level.

FITB integration has been ahead of schedule consistently (close date, leadership alignment, mock conversion). Pattern favors on-time or early conversion. Probability of delay beyond October nudges lower from baseline.

Mock conversion complete; Labor Day target reaffirmed. Low probability of 2+ month delay.

Bank integrations carry non-trivial tail risk but every Q1 signal is favorable.

Execution track record + mock success = low probability of October+ delay.